Housing market economists are forecasting 5% mortgage rates in 2024 and 4% rates in 2025.
How are you planning for changing market trends?
Morningstar’s Housing Market Forecast
If you’re not paying attention to what folks are saying about where the market’s going, then you’re doing yourself and your client base a disservice. That’s part of being the knowledge broker in your market.
And most recently, Morningstar, a Chicago-based financial firm, is predicting 5% rates in 2024 and 4% rates in 2025. It predicts the Fed is going to start to decrease the federal funds rate as we head into next year, once inflation data comes down.
Now, this is just one prediction. But if this is true, and this is where the market’s going, you need to get an instant IV drip into your veins about how you’re going to ramp up your real estate business.
Plan Now for Changing Market Trends
Let me explain—if rates come down as Morningstar predicts, you have to get through the next nine months. And a lot of people are not happy with where their business is right now.
We just talked about how to evaluate your midyear and determine if you’re in a spot where you’re ahead, below or on pace for your goals. So hopefully you’ve done that exercise, because if you haven’t, you’re not running a business the way you should. Every quarter, and really every month, there should be an assessment of what’s happened so far and how to pivot and adjust.
Now, if rates come down that much according to Morningstar, there is a monster opportunity in 2024 and 2025 to have a real estate bull market. And when that happens, the folks that did the work now—6, 9, 12 months in advance—they’re the ones that will reap all the benefits. The person that says, “Oh, it looks like you can make a lot of money in real estate. Let me get my license,” or, “Now I’ll start working, now that the market’s hot,” they’ll be left in the dust.
So my point is this—there’s still opportunity in 2023. You still have over 170 days left in the year. If you’re sitting idly by or you’ve thrown out 2023 as a year where you didn’t hit your numbers and didn’t hit your goals, you’re doing yourself a disservice. You’re not giving yourself the right opportunity. Because we’re still on pace to have 4 to 4.5 million homes sell this year. That means there are 8 to 9 million transaction sides.
There are still a ton of properties that are going to sell. And there might be a light at the end of the tunnel. And we don’t know whether this prediction is right or wrong—but we’re starting to hear people talk about what it’s like on the other side of this adjustment, what it’s like on the other side of this shift. The folks that have shifted already and pivoted their business and are focusing on the things that historically will help you convert more sales, those folks will win.
Put in the Work
You already know what you need to focus on to set up your pipeline for 2024 and 2025—conversations, appointments, contracts, closings. That’s it. Talk to people, set appointments with them, go on the appointments (and know how to execute on them), and turn it into a sale.
The people that focus on those activities are in it for the long game. This isn’t the hare, this is the tortoise. I’m playing for the next three months, the next six months, the next 12 months—or like I’ve been playing my entire career, for the next 10, 15, 20 years.
But you have to make a decision for yourself to start putting in the work today. And that starts with hitting your goals every day. When you make the decision to invest in yourself, have the conversations, go on the appointments, role play, get better, you will set yourself up for success. You know what to do. It’s just time to do it.
And now that there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, start playing for next year as much as finishing this year strong. There’s a lot of time left. Don’t give me the excuse you’re going down the shore or going on vacation and taking 4, 5, 6 weeks off.
Make the decision that you’re going to invest in your business today and work when you’re scheduled to work. Because if you do that, no matter what the market does in the next 12 months, you’ll sell houses, and you’ll be successful.