BAM Key Details:
- Clever Real Estate found 94% of 2026 homebuyers will change their plans if mortgage rates don’t fall below 6%, with 64% saying they would only accept a rate under that threshold.
- Nearly two-thirds of buyers have already delayed purchasing because of high rates, while 58% say current borrowing costs make homeownership unattainable.
- Despite forecasts pointing to flat mortgage rates in the low-to-mid 6% range, 42% of buyers still expect average 2026 rates to fall under 5%.
For most of the past year, mortgage rates have hovered right around 6%. And when it briefly dipped to 5.99%, right on the heels of President Trump’s $200B mortgage bond directive, it seemed as though we might actually see rates below 6% for 2026, despite the forecasts.
Of course, they promptly climbed back up. And 94% of prospective homebuyers are now saying they’ll change their plans if rates don’t drop below 6% (and actually stay there).
That’s according to new survey data from Clever Real Estate and Best Interest Financial.
The problem is most economic forecasts aren’t pointing to a big drop. Taken together, the indicators suggest mortgage rates are more likely to stay flat or edge down modestly than to plunge back into the 4% range a lot of buyers are hoping for.
That gap between what buyers need and what the market is likely to deliver is already reshaping behavior.
Purchases are being delayed, budgets are getting tighter, confidence is slipping, and some buyers are even warming up to extreme ideas like 50-year mortgages just to make the numbers work, at least in the short-term.
Here’s what the data says about where rates may be headed in 2026, why buyers’ expectations are so far off reality, and how this growing standoff could define this year’s housing market.
Buyers Are Anchored to Sub-6% Rates
One of the most striking things in the Clever Real Estate and Best Interest Financial survey is how sharply buyer expectations are clustered around numbers the market hasn’t seen in years.
For a large share of future buyers, anything starting with a six already feels like a non-starter:
- 94% say they’ll change their plans if rates don’t fall below 6%
- 64% would only accept a mortgage rate under 6%
- 63% define a “good” rate as under 5%
- 37% say good rates only begin in the 3% range
- 20% would only buy if rates return below 4%
- Only 10% consider today’s 6%–7% range to be good
- 42% expect average 2026 mortgage rates under 5%, even though most expert projections sit in the mid-6% range
Those expectations are also bleeding into what buyers think will actually happen next year:
- 42% expect average 2026 mortgage rates to land under 5%
- 43% expect rates between 5% and 7%, where most expert forecasts currently sit
- Just 16% think rates will reach 7% or higher
Put together, the picture is less about caution and more about waiting for a market most economists don’t see returning anytime soon (if ever).
After a decade shaped by ultra-low borrowing costs, many buyers are holding out for the old normal to come back instead of recalibrating to today’s reality.
That’s the backdrop behind the 94% headline stat, and it’s why so many 2026 purchase plans are now built around a single assumption: that mortgage rates are headed meaningfully lower.
Hence the waiting game.
Economic Indicators Point to Flat or Slightly Lower Rates
While buyers are holding out for a return to sub-5% mortgages, the economic data in the analysis points to a much less dramatic shift.
Mortgage rates have already come down meaningfully from their recent peak, but the forces that typically drive big drops just aren’t lining up right now.
Here’s what the report highlights:
- Mortgage rates declined from 7.79% in October 2023 to around 6% in January 2026
- Inflation, measured by PCE, sits at 2.8%, after spending much of 2025 between 2.6% and 2.7%
- Unemployment edged up from 4.1% in December 2024 to 4.4% in December 2025
- The 10-year Treasury yield remains between 4.1% and 4.3%
- Analysts say Treasury yields would likely need to fall below 4% for mortgage rates to drop meaningfully under 6%
Put simply, inflation has cooled but not collapsed. The labor market has softened but not cracked. Bond markets are still pricing in risk.
That’s why the overall outlook from Best Interest Financial is for mortgage rates to remain flat or dip slightly through 2026, not plunge back into the territory many buyers are expecting. Experts quoted in the report describe a market more likely to hover in the low-to-mid 6% range unless there’s a sharp economic downturn, which nobody wants.
For buyers waiting on a dramatic reset, the data gives them zero reason to expect one.
High Rates Are Already Delaying Purchases
The standoff between buyer expectations and where mortgage rates actually sit is already changing behavior across the market.
A majority of people planning to buy in 2026 say higher rates have pushed their timeline back, in many cases by years. And for a growing share, today’s borrowing costs feel like a barrier.
The survey shows:
- 64% say mortgage rates have already delayed their home-buying plans
- 14% say those delays have lasted more than three years
- 58% say current rates make homeownership unattainable
- 69% say higher rates have reduced their confidence in the housing market
Even when buyers think about moving forward sooner …
- 78% say it would take mortgage rates falling into the 4% range to motivate them to buy sooner than planned
- Only 10% would speed up their purchase if rates dropped to between 5% and 6%
Budgets are tightening too:
- 19% say a 6% to 7% mortgage rate would force them to significantly lower their home-buying budget
- 58% agree that lower mortgage rates would persuade them to buy a more expensive home
What this points to is a market where demand is being pushed further into the future. Buyers are waiting, trimming expectations, and hoping the rate environment eventually bends in their favor.
That waiting game, multiplied across millions of households, is becoming one of the defining forces of the 2026 housing landscape.
Stress, Misconceptions, and Riskier Financing Ideas Are On the Rise
As rates stay higher than many buyers expected, frustration is starting to show up in how people think about mortgages and what they’re willing to consider just to make a purchase work.
Data from the Clever Real Estate and Best Interest Financial survey shows buyer stress levels are high, and so is confusion about how mortgage rates are actually set.
A large share of buyers believe better rates are already within reach:
- 66% think they’d personally receive a mortgage rate under 6% if they applied today
- 43% expect a rate under 5%
- 25% believe rates under 4% are still available
- 14% think they’d only qualify for a rate of 7% or higher
At the same time, many buyers misunderstand the basic mechanics of the mortgage market:
- 63% believe the Federal Reserve directly determines mortgage rates
That disconnect helps explain why expectations for falling rates remain so strong, even as bond markets and economic data point to a slower, flatter outlook.
The pressure is also pushing some buyers toward much longer-term debt just to keep monthly payments manageable:
- 32% say they’d consider a 50-year mortgage
- 26% say they would prefer one
- 38% say it would be the only way they could afford to buy
That’s likely because few of them know how small the monthly savings would actually be (hint: nothing that could begin to offset an extra 20 years’ worth of compounding interest).
Layered on top of that is a growing lack of trust:
- 33% aren’t confident they’d qualify for a mortgage at today’s rates
- Only 43% trust lenders to give them the best possible rate
- 74% support government caps on mortgage rates
Together, it paints a picture of a buyer pool that’s stressed, misinformed about how the system works, and increasingly open to extreme financing options that would have seemed unthinkable a few years ago.
On a related note, one possible factor behind that openness is the fact so many buyers of younger generations have come to accept the idea of college debt taking decades to pay off.
Anything that makes it more affordable (month to month) feels like a win.
But this is another sign today’s rate environment is reshaping how buyers think about debt, affordability, and what they’re willing to accept to become homeowners.
