According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the pace of U.S. population growth between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, cooled to 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, after 1.0% growth and 3.2 million added the year before.
The biggest reason for the slowdown was the 53.8% drop in net international migration, falling from 2.7 million to 1.3 million.
Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau, stated:
“The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025.
“With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”
Read on for the biggest takeaways from the data, including what it means for buyer demand.
The U.S. Still Grew, but the Fuel Line Pinched
The topline numbers look simple until you see what powered them.
Net international migration fell by more than half, from 2.7 million to 1.3 million. If the Census Bureau’s trend line holds, it could fall again to about 321,000 by July 2026, down by close to 1 million from July 2025 levels.
Natural change, meaning births minus deaths, stayed near 519,000 between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. That’s far below prior benchmarks, including about 1.1 million in 2017 and a range of 1.6 million to 1.9 million during the 2000–2010 decade.
The country still added people, but the pace slowed, and that changes how much “extra demand” most markets can count on.
The Regional Reset Shows Where Momentum Faded
Every region still posted growth, but the pace softened.
- The South fell from 1.4% growth (2023 to 2024) to 0.9% (July 2024 to July 2025), its first sub-1.0% year since 2021
- The Northeast dropped from 0.8% to 0.2% over the same windows
Then you have the Midwest, which looked like the exception that proves the rule.
The Midwest gained 259,938 people in 2023, 386,231 in 2024, and 244,385 in 2025. It also posted positive net domestic migration of 16,000 for the first time this decade, after losses of -175,000 or more in both 2021 and 2022.
Marc Perry, senior demographer at the Census Bureau, added:
“From July 2024 through June 2025, the Midwest also saw positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade. And while the net domestic migration was a relatively modest 16,000, this is still a notable turnaround from the substantial domestic migration losses in 2021 and 2022 of -175,000 or greater.”
State examples highlight the swing:
- Ohio moved to +11,926 in 2025 from -32,482 in 2021
- Michigan improved to +1,796 from -28,290
If you’re watching for early demand shifts, this is the kind of data point that shows up before the market feels different.
Domestic Migration Winners and Losers in 2025
Net domestic migration is not total population change. It tracks people moving between states, and it excludes births, deaths, and international migration. ResiClub ran the Census data into a clean scoreboard for the July 2024 to July 2025 window.
Here are the biggest net domestic migration gains:
- North Carolina: +84,064
- Texas: +67,299
- South Carolina: +66,622
- Tennessee: +42,389
- Arizona: +31,107
Here are the biggest losses:
- California: -229,077
- New York: -137,586
- Illinois: -40,017
- New Jersey: -37,428
- Massachusetts: -33,340
Census also called out the fastest overall growth rate at the state level. South Carolina led the country with 1.5% growth, adding 79,958 people, driven in large part by 66,622 in net domestic migration.
The Pandemic Boom States Are Still Net Positive, but the Surge Is Gone
Florida and Texas still drew movers, as the latest U-Haul state migration report shows. But data from Realtor.com and ResiClub show the scale has changed. Florida’s net domestic migration in 2025 landed at 22,517, and it ranked 8th.
Realtor.com framed the drop as a 93% fall from Florida’s peak of 310,892 in 2022, and called it the lowest annual gain since 2010. ResiClub’s rounded comparison put Florida at about +23,000 in 2025 versus +314,000 in 2022.
Texas cooled too, with 67,299 net domestic migrants in 2025. ResiClub compared that to +222,000 in 2022, a decline Realtor.com described as 69% from the peak.
At the same time, international migration still showed up strongly in a few large states. Census reported the highest net international migration totals as:
- Florida: 178,674
- Texas: 167,475
- California: 109,278
- New York: 95,634
If you’re watching demand, the mix matters. A market can cool on domestic inflows while still getting a boost from international migration.
Where Movers Came From and Why the Carolinas Keep Showing Up
One reason North and South Carolina keep topping lists is that they keep pulling from both nearby states and high-cost states.
Realtor.com cited separate 2024 Census flow data showing South Carolina drew 189,282 movers from other states, including 18% from North Carolina, plus 10% from New York and 10% from Florida.
Idaho’s inbound mix leaned heavily West:
- 25% from Washington
- 21% from California
- 7% from Utah
Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu connected the pattern to affordability and supply.
“States seeing the strongest net growth tend to score better on measures of affordability and homebuilding activity, suggesting that a healthier balance between prices, incomes, and new construction is attracting newcomers and helping existing residents stay,”
She also pointed to the other side of the ledger.
“In contrast, states experiencing the largest net outflows—such as New York, California, and Hawaii—ranked at the bottom of the affordability scores, while Alaska recorded the weakest homebuilding activity across the nation.”
If you’re planning content, prospecting, or expansion around migration, this is the practical lens: follow the inflows, but watch the rate of change. The slowdown is part of the story.
