BAM Key Details:
- The latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show a continued decline in home price appreciation for December 2022, largely due to rising mortgage rates and cooling buyer demand.
- The Southeast reported the biggest gains in home values, with Miami in the lead.
The latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show a continued decline in home price appreciation, with December marking the sixth consecutive month of home price declines in 2022.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
As the leading measure of U.S. home prices, the Case-Shiller Index has earned its place in any comprehensive review of the housing market. So while much has changed since December 2022, the data from the latest report still warrants a look.
Data released just yesterday for the final month of 2022 shows a continued decline in home price gains across the U.S., with sharper declines reported in San Francisco and Seattle.
Annual Home Price Gains
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, drawing from data for all nine U.S. census divisions, reported an annual home price gain of 5.8% for December 2022, down from 7.6% for the previous month.
The 10-City Composite annual home price increase came in at 4.4%, down from the previous month’s increase of 6.3%. The ten metros (MSCs) included in the composite are these:
- Boston–Cambridge–Quincy, MA-NH
- Chicago–Naperville–Joliet, IL
- Denver–Aurora, CO
- Las Vegas–Paradise, NV
- Los Angeles–Long Beach–Santa Ana, CA
- Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach, FL
- New York City, NY
- San Diego–Carlsbad–San Marcos, CA
- San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, CA
- Washington–Arlington–Alexandria, D.C.–VA–WV
The 20-City Composite, including the 10 listed above plus the following 10 metros, showed an annual increase of 4.6% for December, down from the previous month’s 6.8%.
- Atlanta–Sandy Springs–Marietta, GA
- Charlotte–Gastonia–Concord, NC–SC
- Cleveland–Elyria–Mentor, OH
- Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX
- Detroit–Warren–Livonia, MI
- Minneapolis–St Paul–Bloomington, MN
- Phoenix–Mesa–Scottsdale, AZ
- Portland–Vancouver–Beaverton, OR
- Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue, WA
- Tampa–St Petersburg–Clearwater, FL
Among the 20 cities, Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest annual home price gains in December 2022.
All 20 cities in the Index reported lower home prices for the year ending December 2022 compared to the year ending November 2022.
Month-Over-Month Declines
The U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month home price decline of -0.8% in December, before seasonal adjustment. The 10-City and 20-City Composites posted declines of -0.8% and -0.9% respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a modified month-over-month decline of -0.3%, while posted declines for the 10-City and 20-City Composites came in at -0.4% and -0.5% respectively.
All 20 cities posted home price declines both before and after seasonal adjustments.
Case-Shiller Analysis
Judging by the data for 2022, the cooling in home price appreciation that began in June continued through the year’s end, with December marking the sixth consecutive month of home price declines, based on the National Composite Index.
The National Composite fell by 0.8% in December and now sits 4.4% below its June peak. For the year as a whole, the National Composite posted an increase of 5.8%, the 15th best in its 35-year history, but well below 2021’s record-setting 18.9% increase.
Prices dropped in all 20 cities, with a median decline of -1.1%. Annual home price gains for those 20 metros were also lower in December (median 4.4%) than in November (median 6.4%).
Home price decline in San Francisco worsened in December, with prices falling 4.2% year-over-year. West Coast neighbors, Seattle and Portland, saw home price appreciation of -1.8% and 1.1%, respectively.
At the other end of that spectrum, the best performers in December were all in the Southeast, with Miami (+15.9%) taking the lead for the fifth month in a row, followed by Tampa (+13.9%) and Atlanta (+10.4%), with Charlotte (+9.9%) coming close behind in fourth place.
The Southeast (+12.5%) and South (+11.6%) reported the strongest home price gains, while the West (+1.2%) continued in last place.
The prospect of stable, or higher, interest rates means that mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.
For more details, read the full report. And for a more comprehensive view, the Case-Shiller data series, covering more than 27 years of housing market history, is fully accessible here.
Top takeaways for real estate agents
If you serve one of the 20 metros in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, you probably have a fair idea of local home price trends, but it’s still important to keep data handy on national housing market trends as well as what’s going on in your neighborhood.
You don’t know when a particular client or prospect might be weighing the benefits (and costs) of moving to a different metro area. The more you know about what they can expect in terms of housing prices and inventory (as well as mortgage rates), the more you can help them.
Whether they buy now or later, when mortgage rates are expected to come down, be the agent they can trust to help them see the market—and their options—clearly.
