BAM Key Details:
- Redfin reports a 46.3% gap between sellers and buyers, equal to 629,808 more sellers, the largest imbalance on record.
- At the same time, 13.7% of home-sale agreements fell through, totaling more than 42,000 canceled deals, up from 12.8% last year.
- Home prices rose 2.2% in seller’s markets versus 0.3% in buyer-heavy markets, highlighting growing negotiation leverage.
There are now 629,808 more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market. That’s a 46.3% gap, the widest on record.
Meanwhile, 13.7% of home sale agreements fell through in February, totaling more than 42,000 canceled deals. That share is up from 12.8% a year ago. And it’s the highest February rate on record, going back to 2017.
A pair of new Redfin reports put numbers behind what many agents are already experiencing. Buyers have more leverage, and they’re using it. Not just to negotiate, but to walk away when a deal doesn’t feel right.
Here’s how that imbalance is playing out across the market, and what it means for agents trying to get deals all the way to the closing table.
The Buyer-Seller Gap Is Driving Everything Right Now
There are 46.3% more sellers than buyers in today’s market, equal to 629,808 additional listings competing for attention.
That’s a meaningful jump from 29.8% a year ago, and it puts the market firmly in buyer territory.
When inventory builds faster than demand, buyers slow down. They compare more homes and push harder on price and terms. They don’t feel pressure to make a quick decision.
That imbalance is also starting to show up in price growth. On average, home prices rose 2.2% year over year across the five seller’s markets in February, compared to just 0.3% across the 37 buyer’s markets. In other words, the markets with tighter competition are still seeing stronger price appreciation, while buyer-heavy markets are starting to flatten out.
Why More Deals Are Falling Apart
In February, 13.7% of home-sale agreements fell through, totaling more than 42,000 canceled deals.
That’s up from 12.8% a year ago and the highest February rate on record going back to 2017.
Buyers are entering contracts with more flexibility than they’ve had in years. When something doesn’t feel right, they move on. That can happen during the inspection period, after a conversation with a lender, or after seeing another home that feels like a better fit.
Here’s what’s behind it:
- High home prices
- Mortgage rate volatility
- Economic uncertainty and job concerns
Buyers know there are more homes available. They don’t feel locked into one deal. They renegotiate more aggressively and walk away if the seller doesn’t meet their terms.
Getting a deal under contract is only part of the job now. More time is going into keeping it together through inspections, financing, and final negotiations.
Where This Is Happening Most (And Least)
The rise in cancellations isn’t spread evenly across the country. It’s showing up most in markets where inventory is high and buyers have the most choice.
The metros with the highest share of canceled deals are all in the South:
- Tampa: 18.1% of deals fell through
- San Antonio: 17.9%
- Atlanta: 17.9%
- Jacksonville: 17.5%
- Fort Worth: 17.3%
These are all buyer-heavy markets. Tampa, for example, has 84% more sellers than buyers, and San Antonio has more than twice as many sellers as buyers. With that much inventory, buyers can back out of one deal and find another without much trouble.
On the other end, cancellations are much less common in tighter markets:
- San Francisco: 3.7%
- Nassau County, NY: 4.5%
- San Jose: 5.4%
- Milwaukee: 7.5%
- Oakland: 7.7%
In these areas, supply is more limited. Buyers have fewer options, which makes them less likely to walk away once they’re under contract.
You can see how closely this ties back to the buyer-seller gap. Where inventory is high, deals are easier to abandon. Where supply is tight, buyers tend to stick with what they’ve secured.
What This Means for Agents Right Now
The focus has shifted from getting a home under contract to getting it across the finish line.
Pricing has to reflect current demand. Listings that come out too high are sitting longer and attracting buyers who are already looking for leverage.
Also, communication becomes more important once you’re under contract.
Buyers are second-guessing decisions and revisiting numbers (and using AI to back them up). Small concerns can turn into bigger issues if they’re not addressed early.
It also means setting expectations earlier:
- Sellers need to understand how much competition they’re up against.
- Buyers need to be clear on what they can afford and where they’re willing to compromise.
More deals are getting signed. More deals are also falling apart. The agents who keep transactions moving are the ones who stay involved all the way through closing.
