Key Details:
- The National Association of Realtors® has launched a new member-exclusive Market Statistics Dashboard featuring metro-level data on affordability, pricing, and housing trends.
- NAR’s latest analysis shows that if mortgage rates drop to 6%, an additional 5.5 million households, including 1.6 million renters, could afford a median-priced home, fueling projected home sales growth of 3% in 2025 and 14% in 2026.
If mortgage rates drop to 6%, more than 5 million additional households in the U.S. could afford a median-priced home. That’s not just a stat. It’s a signal.
In a July 15 announcement, the National Association of Realtors® launched its Market Statistics Dashboard, a member-exclusive tool offering monthly metro-level data on affordability, home prices, demographic shifts, and more.
But one forward-looking analysis stands out: what happens to buyer demand if mortgage rates fall back to 6%?
A Tool Built for Members, With Data That Moves the Market
Designed to help agents stay ahead of shifting conditions, the new Dashboard pulls together several critical data sets into one monthly hub. Available only to NAR members, it includes:
- Metro-level housing affordability trends
- Sales and listing activity by region
- Home price movement
- Economic indicators
- Demographic and homeownership trends
The goal? To equip Realtors with the localized insights they need to advocate for clients, support smarter decisions, and close more deals.
NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun had this to say about the new member-exclusive tool:
“The new Dashboard is a tool that enables NAR members to stay ahead of the market and better serve their clients. Using exclusive NAR data, the Dashboard is a one-stop-shop that equips members with insights into shifts in affordability, demand, and the economy. This allows agents who are Realtors® to advocate on behalf of their clients with confidence and achieve better outcomes.”
The 6% Mortgage Rate Scenario: What It Unlocks
Using proprietary affordability data, NAR’s new analysis models what would happen if the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6%:
- 5.5 million more U.S. households would qualify to purchase a median-priced home
- 1.6 million of those would-be buyers are renters
- Roughly 10% of these households are expected to buy within 12 to 18 months of rates dropping
That demand could bring fresh momentum to both home prices and sales volume.
NAR’s Latest Forecast: What to Expect in 2025 and 2026
NAR also released updated projections tied to its midyear economic and housing forecast. Assuming mortgage rates ease, here’s what they’re predicting:
Sales Volume Growth
- +3% in 2025
- +14% in 2026
Home Price Growth
- +1% in 2025
- +4% in 2026
Mortgage Rate Averages
- 6.7% for a 30-year fixed rate in 2025
- 6.0% in 2026
If those projections hold, agents in select metros may be in for a particularly busy stretch.
Markets Poised for the Biggest Gains
According to NAR, these five cities could see the strongest sales activity gains if rates fall to 6%:
- Atlanta
- Dallas
- Minneapolis
- Cleveland
- Kansas City
Agents in these metros may want to revisit their buyer pipelines now and prep for a surge in interest.
Dr. Yun will walk through the Dashboard and expand on these projections during the Forecast Summit webinar on July 16 at 2:00 p.m. E.T.
