Nothing gets KBP listeners more fired up than prediction season.
If you’ve been watching the Knowledge Brokers Podcast long enough, and you’ve seen the latest BAM roundup of housing forecasts for 2026, you know what I’m talking about.
It’s that episode. The one where KBP hosts Byron Lazine, Tom Toole, and Lisa Chinatti review their predictions for this year to see who called it most accurately on home sales, home price growth, and mortgage rates, as well as some more controversial predictions.
From there, they launch right into their predictions for the next 12 months, including NAR membership count, biggest winners and losers of 2026, and the best real estate stocks to own.
They measured their housing predictions against the latest Realtor.com forecast, which KBP guest Danielle Hale unpacked in last week’s episode.
Read on for their take on what agents should expect from 2026. Then tune in to enjoy the full episode in all its unfiltered glory.
KBP Panel Predictions for 2026
Each set of predictions on the 2026 housing market is relative to Realtor.com’s forecast for the coming year. Each KBP host voted “under,” “above,” or “same.” Over/under predictions for agent count were based on NAR’s predictions from a November 17, 2025 Special Report.
Home Prices
The panel was divided on their home price outlooks for 2026, with two going in opposite directions from the RDC forecast of 2.2% annual growth for the median existing-home price, and one predicting a slightly larger uptick.
- Byron: Above
- Lisa: Above…. But just slightly
- Tom: Under (nationally)
Mortgage Rates
From there, the conversation shifted to mortgage rates, still the hinge point for consumer confidence, buyer demand, and transaction volume. Realtor.com is calling for a 6.3% average and year-end rate. But all three hosts predicted the average rate for 2026 would go lower.
- Byron: Under
- Lisa: Under….but also just slightly.
- Tom: Under
Home Sales
Once the rate debate settled, the panel moved to home sales. Realtor.com’s forecast of a +1.7% bump to 4.13M sets the baseline, but the KBP hosts had different reads.
- Byron: Under
- Lisa: Above (“My gut is 4.2M”)
- Tom: Above
Number of Real Estate Agents
Next up was NAR’s expected membership drop to 1.2M. This is where the hosts split based on what they’ve seen inside their own organizations.
- Byron: Under
- Lisa: Above
- Tom: Above 1.2M (But down from 1.49M)
Best Real Estate Stock to Own
From there, the hosts shifted to their annual stock picks. These choices reveal how each of them reads the broader 2026 landscape and which sectors they think are positioned to benefit.
- Byron: Cannabis Real Estate REITs (Top pick: IIPR)
- Lisa: Prologis
- Tom: American Tower
Watch the full episode to hear Byron, Tom and Lisa share their predictions on the biggest winners and losers of 2026, plus a wildcard prediction from Tom you probably won’t see coming.
