Seattle and Boston are playing for the Super Bowl trophy this weekend, but for those hyper-focused on housing, the bigger headline is what tends to happen next.
It’s pretty exciting, particularly for any Seattleites and Bostonians hoping for a bump in their home’s market value.
So, here’s the scoop: in 13 of the past 20 years, the winning metro outpaced national home value growth in the year after its Super Bowl win.
And yes, we know, that’s only 65% of the time, but it gets better.
On average, the typical home in a championship market beat the national average for home value growth by $4,437.
And the metro that scored the biggest gains the year after their Super Bowl win? That would be Tampa, FL (2021 winner) with a typical home value growth gain of $69,867 in 2022.
(Of course, there were a few other things going on at the time… )
This feels like a good spot for a few words from Zillow Senior Economist Kara Ng:
“While this is a fun trend, it’s highly unlikely that a championship football team is the driving force causing home values to grow. A win on the field brings bragging rights, but unfortunately won’t boost your Zestimate.
“Regardless of the outcome, the good news is that we are trending toward a healthier market nationwide, with more homes for sale and buyers better able to afford them.”
It’s true, a Super Bowl win is no guarantee home values in the winning metro will go up. Stay tuned for ample proof from NYC. But if it helps… go Seahawks (for my dad)!
Now for the details.
Biggest Post-Championship Home Value Swings
Zillow’s data puts Tampa, FL, at the top of the list of metros whose home value growth beat the national average. The typical Tampa home gained $69,687 in value the year after its 2021 Super Bowl win, beating the national average by $25,262.
Next in line, Denver, CO, home value growth after its 2016 win reached $32,168, outpacing the national average by $21,459.
Rounding out the top three, Boston, MA, gained $28,962 in home value growth the year after its 2017 victory, beating typical national growth by $15,565.
On the flipside, declines in home value growth followed 7 out of the past 20 Super Bowl wins, with New York City losing $35,478 and lagging behind the national average by $15,741 a year after its 2008 win.
Los Angeles came next with a much smaller $6,563 loss, lagging behind national growth by $8,763 a year after its 2022 win.
With the Big Game coming tomorrow, we’ll soon find out whether Seattle or Boston will add to the list. But considering both metros lean on the pricier side, a precipitous drop in home values seems unlikely.
Top 10 Championship Metros for Home Value Growth
Zillow’s analysis included a chart showing home value gains and losses for Super Bowl winning metros for the past 20 years.
Among the top 10 winning years, ranking by home value gains the year after the win, Boston takes up three spots, while Tampa rules by a sizable margin at number one. Seattle ranks at number six.
- Tampa, FL (2021) $69,867
- Denver, CO (2016) $32,168
- Boston, MA (2017) $28,962
- Boston, MA (2015) $27,069
- Kansas City, MO (2020) $25,320
- Seattle, WA (2014) $22,546
- Kansas City, MO (2023) $14,712
- Boston, MA (2019) $14,363
- Baltimore, MD (2013) $12,373
- Kansas City, MO (2024) $10,759
Among metros with the smallest home value gains, New York City is the clear leader, with a home value drop of $35,478 the year after its 2008 Super Bowl win.
That said, considering NYC home values are among the highest in the U.S., it can absorb a bigger-than-average price drop without a drastic change in affordability.
- New York, NY (2008) -$35,478
- Green Bay, WI (2011) -$6,563
- New Orleans, LA (2010) -$4,673
- Indianapolis, IN (2007) $125
- Pittsburgh, PA (2006) $2,514
- Pittsburgh, PA (2009) $3,574
- New York, NY (2012) $3,972
- Philadelphia, PA (2018) $8,362
- Philadelphia, PA* (2025) $9,392
- Los Angeles, CA (2022) $10,083
So, what do you think? Is there something to this trend? Or is the link between a Super Bowl victory and home value growth just slightly less random than a coin toss?
