Thanksgiving is supposed to be about gratitude and carbs. Instead, you sit down at the table and immediately get hit with a wave of questions about the market (among other things).
Rates, prices, inventory, and whatever new mortgage idea went viral on TikTok. It happens every year, but this season comes with more confusion than usual.
If you want to get through dinner without silently questioning every life choice that led you to this moment, you need data that cuts through the noise. These talking points will help you handle every conversation with calm confidence and keep the peace long enough to enjoy dessert.
Even better, Uncle Pete won’t say, “Hoo-boy! The turkey isn’t the only thing getting roasted this year!” even once.
How’s the market?
The newest Existing Home Sales Report from NAR gives you a clean, fact-based snapshot of where things stand right now. Here’s what the latest numbers tell us:
- Existing home sales rose 1.2% in October to a 4.10 million seasonally adjusted annual rate.
- Sales are also up 1.7% compared to one year ago.
- Inventory dipped 0.7% from last month to 1.52 million homes, equal to 4.4 months of supply.
- The median home price rose 2.1% year over year to $415,200. That marks the 28th straight month of annual price gains.
- Regionally, the Midwest saw a 5.3% increase in sales, the South rose 0.5%, the Northeast held steady, and the West declined 1.3%.
- Mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October, down from 6.35% in September.
If you want a simple explanation for the table, it’s this: Prices are still rising, inventory is still tight, and the Midwest and South are doing the heavy lifting this fall.
What’s with 50-year mortgages and portable loans?
This is exactly the kind of topic that blows up family dinner. Short answer: both ideas are trending online, but neither is a magic fix for affordability.
Before you respond, it helps to understand how each one actually works.
A few things to know before the conversation starts:
- A 50-year mortgage is not allowed under current rules, because anything longer than 30 years does not qualify as a “qualified mortgage” under Dodd-Frank.
- To become mainstream, the law would need to change, or lenders would have to offer the product as non-QM, which typically means higher rates and stricter underwriting.
- Analysts warn that stretching payments over 50 years could keep prices inflated and slow long-term equity growth.
- In other words, it lowers payments on paper but could create bigger problems later.
Portable mortgages are a different idea entirely. FHFA leadership has said they are actively evaluating whether homeowners should be able to take their current mortgage and rate with them when they move.
That idea has obvious appeal. Millions of homeowners locked in 2 to 3% rates during the pandemic. Today’s average 30-year fixed rate sits closer to 6.29%. A portable mortgage could, in theory, ease the lock-in effect and help more people move.
Assumable mortgages already exist through FHA, VA, and USDA loans, but the inventory is limited. The seller must agree, the buyer must qualify, and buyers often need cash to cover the seller’s equity.
If you need a single line for dinner, use this: Interesting ideas, but nothing that will shift the market overnight (or at all).
Are homes losing value?
Zillow’s latest report is the reason this question is coming up more often this year. Its analysis shows that 53% of homes lost value over the past twelve months, the highest share since 2012. That sounds like the start of a housing crash, but the context tells a very different story.
Here’s what the data actually shows:
- The average drawdown from peak value is 9.7%, far below the 27% decline seen in 2012.
- Only 4.1% of homes are valued below their last sale price.
- The typical homeowner has seen a 67% increase in value since their last purchase.
- Markets with the biggest drops tend to be metros that experienced the steepest pandemic run-ups. Denver leads the list at 90.6% of homes declining year over year.
What buyers and homeowners are seeing right now is a correction after six years of rapid appreciation, not a collapse.
Most of these declines are paper losses, not true financial setbacks. Equity built earlier in the cycle is still protecting the vast majority of households.
What will happen to the market next year?
The cleanest way to answer this is to share NAR’s newest forecast.
A few highlights from the latest outlook:
- Existing home sales are projected to jump 14% in 2026.
- Home prices are expected to rise 3% by the end of 2025 and another 4% in 2026.
- Mortgage rates are forecast to ease from around 6.7% this year to roughly 6% next year.
- Mortgage applications are already up 31% year over year, which signals more demand waiting for the right moment.
When someone at the table asks about next year, keep it simple. NAR expects more sales, slightly lower rates, and continued price growth. No fireworks, but finally forward movement.
If you’re inside BAMx, you show up to Thanksgiving with something most people don’t have: real context. Weekly templates, clear data recaps, and Hot Sheet insights make you the steady voice at a table full of hot takes.
When the table goes all-in on housing theories, you’re the one who can bring real clarity without breaking a sweat.
I heard foreclosures are surging. Are we headed into another 2008 housing crisis?
This one comes up every holiday season, and this year the headlines are louder because ATTOM’s latest report shows foreclosure activity rising again. The numbers are real, but they need context before anyone jumps to “2008” at the table.
Here’s what the data actually says:
- There were 36,766 foreclosure filings in October. That’s a 3% increase from September and a 19% jump from last year.
- October marked the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases.
- Nationally, one in every 3,871 housing units had a foreclosure filing.
- Even with the increases, activity remains far below historic highs.
ATTOM’s CEO, Rob Barber, put it simply. Activity is rising, but still nowhere near distress levels. Byron Lazine echoed the same point on the Hot Sheet when he said we’re “bouncing off zero.” The increases look sharp because they’re being measured against the lowest baseline in modern history.
If someone at the table pushes the panic button, here’s the clearest way to defuse it. Today’s foreclosure trends reflect a market returning to normal levels, not a system sliding into crisis.
If you want to bring real clarity to the table, keep these points front and center:
- Activity is rising from an extremely low baseline.
- Levels today are nowhere near the foreclosure crisis of 2008.
- Most homeowners have enough equity to sell long before they ever hit default.
- Some spikes reflect reporting changes, not new distress.
- A healthy market includes some level of foreclosure activity.
If someone wants a deeper breakdown, show them the full BAM article here. It clears up the confusion and gives you the full picture behind the headlines.
Happy Thanksgiving from all of us here at BAM!
