Thanksgiving is all about gratitude, food, and—inevitably—a few questions about your job.
If you’re a real estate agent, the housing market is bound to come up. And by now, you know the kinds of questions you can expect, along with the general tone from each questioner, particularly those just looking for a way to stoke drama at the dinner table.
Don’t worry—BAM’s got you covered with talking points that showcase your deep knowledge of the market.
Talking Points for Thanksgiving Dinner Conversation
1. “How’s the market?”
Overall, the market has cooled a bit thanks to higher mortgage rates. That said, things are shifting. The latest data shows that existing home sales actually increased by 2.9% year over year—the first annual jump since July 2021.
Even though sales are lower than usual, prices are holding strong. In fact, the median home price went up 4.0% from October 2023, hitting $407,200. That’s the 16th straight month of year-over-year price growth.
Why? It all comes down to low inventory. There just aren’t enough homes for sale, so prices have stayed high. Buyers are still looking, and sellers who price and market their homes right are getting offers. It’s all about the right strategy.
2. “What happened after the election?”
After the election, there’s been a little uncertainty, which is common. Mortgage rates ticked up because the bond market reacted to the results, thinking there might be more government spending ahead.
Historically, home prices have grown faster in election years compared to non-election years. In the past nine election years, home prices have grown an average of 4.84% compared to 4.44% for non-election years. The worst year for home values was 2008 (thanks to the Great Financial Crisis), and the best was 2021, during the pandemic homebuying boom.
Election years have also brought a brief slowdown in home sales, specifically in November. But in nine of the past 11 election years, home sales bounced back the following year.
As for mortgage rates, based on data from Freddie Mac, rates declined from July to November in eight of the past 11 election years. And according to recent forecasts, rates are expected to ease in the months following this year’s election, too.
3. “What’s going on with that NAR settlement?”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement has changed how agents get paid.
Traditionally, sellers paid the buyer’s agent’s commission, but now buyers might pay that fee themselves in some cases. That raised some concerns that buyer agent commissions would plummet. So far, that hasn’t been the case.
However, it has challenged many agents to adapt and improve as buyer advocates.
All in all, it’s shaking things up a bit, but it’s also making things more transparent, which is a good thing for everyone involved.
4. “What do you think will happen to the market next year?”
Here’s what the experts are forecasting for 2025:
Mortgage Rates:
- National Association of Realtors: This year (2024), 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have ranged from 6.08% to 7.44%. For the next two years (2025-26), NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts stabilization at the low end of that range.
- Zillow: Since mortgage rates dropped in September, they’ve surged again to roughly 7%, and Zillow expects more swings in 2025, with refinancing sprints during the dips.
- Fannie Mae: Based on housing forecast data for November, mortgage rates are expected to average 6.6% for 2024 by year’s end (up from its previous forecast of 6%) and 6.3% by the end of 2025 (up from 5.6%).
- Mortgage Bankers Association: According to its monthly mortgage finance forecast for November, MBA now expects mortgage rates to stay in the 6.4% to 6.6% range in 2025—and to hold steady at 6.3% in 2026. Those projections are up from those in the October report, which forecasted a 5.9% to 6.2% range for 2025 and 5.9% for 2026.
Home Prices:
- National Association of Realtors: Yun’s market predictions for the next couple years include median home price projections of $410,700 (up 2% over 2024) for 2025 and $420,000 (up 2% over 2025) for 2026.
- Zillow: Zillow is forecasting 2.6% annual growth in home prices for 2025, which is relatively slow and similar to home price growth in 2024.
- Fannie Mae: The November report includes national home price growth projections of 5.8% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025 on a Q4/Q4 basis.
Home Sales:
- National Association of Realtors: Yun’s forecast for home sales includes a 9% annual increase in existing home sales and an 11% increase in new home sales for 2025. For 2026, NAR projections include annual increases at 13% for existing home sales and 8% for new home sales.
- Zillow: Home sales in 2025 are expected to reach 4.3 million—up from 4.1 million in 2023 and a projected 4 million in 2024.
- Fannie Mae: Home sales projections have gone down from the previous month’s forecast, with total home sales of 4.71 million for 2024 (down from 4.77 million) and 4.93 million for 2025 (down from 5.24 million). In 2026, easing mortgage rates, modest improvements in affordability, and a weakening lock-in effect are expected to bring a rebound in home sales to 5.68 million.
5. “Why are buyers signing contracts with agents now?”
The buyer agreement is all about setting expectations and being clear. A contract helps buyers and agents commit to working together.
Also, plenty of brokerages offer short-term and non-exclusive agreements, so buyers don’t have to commit to working with an agent they haven’t even met just to tour a home.
Think of it as putting the terms of your working relationship in writing so everyone knows what to expect. No agent wants to burn bridges with a client (or potential client), so most will want to make sure you understand what you’re signing.
If you don’t, and the agent isn’t helping, I’d shop around until you find one who can.
What You Bring to the Table
If you’re a BAMx member, you already have an advantage at the Thanksgiving dinner table.
With your weekly BAMx in a Box templates, you’ve been sending out emails, blogs, videos, and social media posts on the latest developments in the housing market and the real estate industry, along with trending topics, like this one that dropped last week:
Not only that, but your content breaks down essential knowledge on both the macro and micro levels. You know your local market better than most. And thanks to your weekly exposure to national market news—with BAMx templates plus show notes and charts from the daily Hot Sheet—facts just pop into your head at random.
It’s weird and sometimes inconvenient. But at family dinners, you are the resident market whisperer. If you can steer clear of politics, you’ll probably live to enjoy the bragging rights.
Not a BAMx member yet? Use the link below to get early access to our Black Friday sale and save 40% off your first year or month of membership.
