Tom Ferry, one of the biggest names in real estate coaching, has two mentors he says would make any list of the most influential people in residential real estate.
He asked them both what they expect from the market, and they gave him the same answer.
“Count on the next two years, possibly three, of exactly what we’re experiencing today.”
Ferry shared that forecast as a guest on the Knowledge Brokers Podcast with hosts Byron Lazine, Lisa Chinatti and Tom Toole. Mortgage rates had hit a 52-week high earlier that week and are currently hovering around 7.6%.
Ferry paired the forecast with five plays for agents who want to keep growing over the next two or three years. The hosts added their own experience to several of them.
1. Run Your September 2023 Playbook Again
Agents have been here before. In September 2023, mortgage rates climbed to 8%, and plenty of people in the industry panicked.
Ferry wants agents to remember what they did next.
“I’m just reminding everybody, ‘Hey, what were you doing in September 2023 when the rates went to eight? What was the play that you ran after you woke up from a panic and said no one’s ever gonna buy a house again and, oh my god, and then they did? What were the plays you were running then? Because you just need to go back to that playbook and start over again.’”
Lazine’s play in 2023 was taking control of training on his team. He said it led to the team’s most profitable years in 2025 and 2026. Those years beat the years at the tail end of COVID, when the team closed more than 700 transactions.
Lazine said the lesson applies to every role in the business, from agents to team leaders to brokerage managers:
“Whether it’s accepting training from the agent level, leaning into world class training from the team leader …there has to be a consistent drum beat on getting better and getting more skilled every single day. And let that compound because it will make a great impact over these next 12 months with everything that we’re dealing with.”
2. Map the Affordability Zones in Your Market
Ferry talked about a friend in the Austin area who uses robots to build homes. Here’s what he shared about Ethan Wong‘s homes:
- Size: three bedrooms and two bathrooms
- Build time: three days
- Average sale price: $158,000
Ferry said everyone wants a condo in downtown Boston at Ethan Wong prices. In his view, people want to live in the hottest spot at the lowest possible price, and that combination doesn’t exist.
His advice is to find the places in your market where buyers can afford to buy.
“Affordability is the issue. The question I’d be asking everybody today, if you’re looking for a play to run, where are the affordability opportunity zones in your market? I’d be looking at that.”
Toole said he built his early career on this idea. He looked for the places where he could close the most deals and stayed away from trophy deals. He also pointed out that agents who drop everything for a seven-figure “trophy” deal can lose that buyer to a builder.
He explained what agents gain when they go for volume.
“When you stack transactions, you also stack people that are going to refer you out to their friends and family. You’ve got maybe three parties that are going to refer you instead of one that’s at a very high price point. So, I like going to where the deals are in your market.”
3. Reconnect With Orphaned Clients and Older Homeowners
Ferry said he’d seen a stat that morning showing there are more 75-year-olds in America than there are people to rent their homes.
Because of this, he expects more of those homes to be sold than rented.
He also talked about orphaned clients, meaning clients whose original agent has left the business. Ferry said late-stage boomers and the oldest homeowners often fall into this group.
“We all know the opportunity between the late-stage boomers and the super seniors. It’s an enormous opportunity right now that nobody’s paying attention to. And fun fact, heads up, not being controversial, the person that sold them that house 38 years ago is dead. They’re not in the business anymore.”
Those homeowners, when they’re ready to make a move, will need new agents.
4. Open Life Rate Conversations With a Lender
Plenty of homeowners feel stuck with their low mortgage rates. Ferry and Toole shared these numbers on how many homeowners are in that spot:
- About 39% of the 138 million homes in the US have no mortgage, according to Ferry
- The majority of homes with a mortgage carry a rate below 4%, he said
- 80% of mortgages are under 6%, according to Toole
- 21% of homeowners say they’re living in their dream home, according to a 2025 Clever Offers study
Ferry said he asks a question at every seminar he leads. He described what happened when he asked it in Austin.
“I was just in Austin. I’m like, how many of you have a client that you sold a house to in 2021-22 that, looking back after losing four or five offers, they finally got the house, but they don’t like the house. And every hand went up.”
For these homeowners, Ferry shared a strategy from JJ Mazo of CrossCountry Mortgage. It centers on the life rate, which is the blended interest rate a homeowner pays across all their debt.
Ferry’s version of the life rate included these debts:
- Credit cards
- Car payments
- Student loans
- A HELOC
Ferry put the average life rate at 11.5%. He said Mazo came up with the idea because homeowners know their mortgage rate and nothing else about what they’re paying.
“Everybody knows their mortgage rate and they brag about it, but no one knows what’s actually causing the problem: it’s the life rate.”
In Ferry’s version of the play, the agent offers to have a lender sit down with the homeowner. The lender shows how the homeowner could pay off debt and move into a home they want to live in.
Lazine said the conversation fits move-up households with car loans and credit card debt, but that paying off that debt may lead to a lateral move more than a move up.
He added that boomers are a weaker fit, since they tend not to carry those payments.
Ferry also mentioned defaults are rising. Some homeowners are losing houses with $30,000 to $50,000 in equity, and he was clear that it isn’t happening at scale.
Therein lies an opportunity for agents. Ferry’s own sister Michelle works with homeowners in this spot in San Diego. She’ll sell about 25 homes this year.
5. Make Phone Calls and Market Every Day
Ferry wants agents to study their markets and go after the best opportunities they find.
“I think there’s just a ton of opportunity for smart agents right now to look far more analytically at their marketplace. What are the best opportunities? Who are the people that are most likely to sell?
“And then, Tom Toole, you and I both know, make phone calls and market like crazy. Because if you’re not doing that, you’re not in the game.
“You don’t win in an environment like this on defense. It’s all offense right now.”
Chinatti said leads from this summer came in when rates were lower, so those people may need more nurturing. As for those making inquiries now, they’re not coming in blind.
“Anybody who’s creating a new inquiry now who is raising their hand and saying ‘I want to buy or sell,’ those people are raising their hands knowing what the rates are… There is so much opportunity right now for those that are consistently lead generating and understanding that people who are raising their hands now will still transact despite the rates. Both buyers and sellers.”
Toole added that every office has an agent who goes to every training and puts none of it to work. Over the next couple of years, he expects the agents who do the work every day to come out ahead.
What’s the Biggest Possible Game You Could Play?
Ferry ended his time on the show with a question he’s been asking everyone.
“The market is the market and it’s going to be like this for the next two to three years. So, the question is, what is the biggest possible game you could play?”
The smartest people in the industry are using this market to think about their partners, their distribution, their reach and the one problem they can solve.
Ferry called the other path a yo-yo game, where every day is a slugfest and deals fall apart. With the market expected to stay where it is for two to three years, the bigger game is the only one worth playing.
