Key Details:
- Realtor.com reports that 26% of U.S. homes, worth $12.7T, face severe climate risks from flooding, wildfire, or wind.
- Nearly 6M homes valued at $3.4T are at flood risk beyond FEMA maps, while 18% of homes worth $8T face wind damage.
- Another 5.6% of homes, valued at $3.2T, are exposed to wildfire danger.
More than one in four U.S. homes, representing a staggering $12.7 trillion in real estate value, face severe or extreme risk from flooding, hurricane wind, or wildfires.
That’s according to a new analysis from Realtor.com, which highlights how climate-related threats are no longer hypothetical but already reshaping housing markets, homeowner costs, and insurance coverage nationwide.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, set the tone in the release by reminding the industry what’s at stake.
“Climate risks are no longer a distant threat for U.S. housing—they are a present reality that put a large chunk of U.S. real estate value at risk.”
So, what does the data actually show? Let’s break it down.
Flood Risk: Millions of Homes Underestimated by FEMA
Flooding is the most underestimated hazard in the housing market.
Nearly 6 million homes, valued at $3.4 trillion, face severe or extreme flooding over the next 30 years. That is 2 million more homes than FEMA maps currently identify.
Within the nation’s largest metros, the gap between FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Areas and actual flood risk is biggest in New York ($95.3B), Los Angeles ($65.6B), and San Francisco ($54.9B).
Top 5 Metros by Value of Homes at Flood Risk:
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL – $306.8B (23.2%)
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ – $295.3B (9.9%)
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL – $117.7B (25.6%)
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA – $99.6B (3.2%)
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX – $92.4B (12.1%)
By share of local market value, New Orleans tops the list with 88.9% of housing stock at severe or extreme flood risk.
Hurricane Wind Risk: Entire Markets Fully Exposed
Wind risk affects an even larger swath of the market. Realtor.com’s analysis found that 18.3% of homes nationwide, valued at nearly $8 trillion, are at severe or extreme risk of hurricane wind damage.
In 14 major metros across Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas, every single home faces high wind risk. That means entire markets, not just flood zones, are vulnerable.
Top 5 Metros by Value of Homes at Wind Risk:
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL – $1,323.9B (100%)
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX – $764.3B (100%)
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ – $545.6B (18.3%)
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL – $459.7B (100%)
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL – $372.2B (100%)
To put the financial burden in perspective, many homeowners with a $400,000 policy could be responsible for up to $20,000 in damages before insurance coverage even kicks in.
Wildfire Risk: Concentrated but Growing
Wildfire risk is geographically concentrated but no less severe. In 2025, 5.6% of U.S. homes, worth $3.2 trillion, face severe or extreme wildfire risk. California accounts for nearly 40% of that total ($1.8 trillion), with Los Angeles and Riverside among the most vulnerable metros.
The state’s insurance market is showing the strain. California’s FAIR Plan, designed as a last-resort option, now carries $650 billion in exposure, a 289% increase since 2021.
Outside California, wildfire exposure is especially high in Colorado Springs, where more than three-quarters of local home value is at risk, and in Tucson, where 60% of housing stock faces extreme fire danger.
Insurance Costs: The Unavoidable Consequence
For homeowners, climate risk shows up most directly in their insurance bills. In Miami, the typical HO-3 policy premium now equals 3.7% of a home’s value, the highest among the 100 largest metros.
Top 5 Markets by Insurance Burden:
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL – 3.7% | Median Value: $614,000 | Premium: $22,718
- New Orleans-Metairie, LA – 3.6% | Median Value: $231,328 | Premium: $8,328
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL – 2.2% | Median Value: $393,147 | Premium: $8,649
- Oklahoma City, OK – 2.0% | Median Value: $236,889 | Premium: $4,738
- Baton Rouge, LA – 2.0% | Median Value: $233,600 | Premium: $4,672
By comparison, the average for the top 100 markets is 0.8% of home value.
Hale noted that while home shoppers don’t always factor in these costs upfront, they are increasingly shaping affordability and access.
“Climate risk and insurance are not usually a top consideration for home shoppers balancing budgets against still-high home prices and mortgage rates, but these factors already shape ongoing housing costs and affordability, and increasingly whether they can secure affordable insurance coverage.”
