When the NAR settlement dropped, panic spread across the industry. Would commissions plummet overnight? Would buyers suddenly refuse to pay agents?
Now, five months in, the data tells a different story: commissions are shifting, but not in the way many expected.
According to new reports from AccountTECH and Redfin, buyer and seller commission rates have barely budged overall. The biggest changes? More negotiation, slight shifts by price point, and continued uncertainty about the future.
Byron Lazine and Nicole White discussed commission trends on this week’s episode of The Real Word:
Here’s what you need to know.
Buyer and Seller Commissions: A Stabilizing Market
Here’s where we stand:
- Buyer’s agent commission (Q4 2024, Redfin): 2.37%—basically flat since the NAR rules took effect.
- Seller’s agent commission (January 2025, AccountTECH): 2.73%, up slightly from its low of 2.69% in the months after the settlement.
Commissions dipped briefly in August when the new rules took effect, but by December, buyer commissions returned to 2.38%—the same as before the rule change (see Redfin chart below).
Meanwhile, seller commissions followed a similar pattern, recovering after an initial drop (see the AccountTECH chart below).
The takeaway? The commission apocalypse has not arrived—at least, not yet.
Byron’s take, which he shared on Real Word, is even more encouraging:
Clearly, listing commissions have not gone down. You can call those numbers flat, or you can call them slightly up, which, mathematically, you’d be correct. Now, what I’m also hearing from most of the teams that do a lot of listings across the country—the brokers or the single agents who crush it on listings across the country…the really good listing agents are getting an increase.
What this also tells me is that consumers are like “I see value in 2.8% on the sell side…I see value in having someone manage this process for me, invest in the marketing, use the tools that they have that I don’t have, to attract more offers, more interest, to do it on my timeline, to negotiate my terms.” Homeowners are saying, “I see value in paying a percentage to a listing agent to handle that for me.”
Commissions Are Up for Affordable Homes
While overall percentages remain steady, commission trends vary by price point, according to Redfin:
- Luxury homes ($1M+): Buyer’s agent commission fell to 2.17% (Q4 2024) from 2.33% a year earlier (Redfin).
- Mid-priced homes ($500K–$999K): Barely moved, holding at 2.26% (Q4 2024).
- Affordable homes (<$500K): Increased to 2.46%, up from 2.42% in Q3 2024.
Redfin’s chart illustrates the differences in commission trends across the three price tiers:
Why the shift? Luxury sellers are more comfortable negotiating lower percentages, knowing a 2% commission on a million-dollar home is still a solid payday for an agent. Meanwhile, buyers of lower-priced homes are asking sellers to cover more—often pushing for 2.5% to 2.7%.
The New Normal: More Negotiation, More Questions
According to a Redfin survey of 500 agents:
- 54% of agents say buyers and sellers are negotiating commissions more than before.
- 48% say commissions in their area haven’t changed—but 43% report declines.
- 75% of agents are concerned about commission trends over the next five years.
At first, some sellers assumed they could simply pay nothing to the buyer’s agent—but reality set in quickly. As one Redfin Premier agent put it, “Sellers are realizing most buyers are requesting the seller pay for their agent as part of the offer.”
What’s Next for Commissions?
More agents expect commissions to fall in the next 12 months than to stay the same or increase. But here’s the thing: commission rates were already trending downward before the NAR settlement.
For now, the best move for agents? Sharpen negotiation skills, set clear expectations with clients, and stay ahead of the conversation.
This is a business model that works for both agents and consumers. It’s not going away.
The moral of the story here to me is you haven’t seen any movement, generally speaking, on commissions. The business model that consumers—both buy-side and sell-side—prefer is a model of paying a percentage of the sale price to agents. You have not seen a new model emerge. You haven’t seen or heard from consumers saying they want a new model. This model works for them. And you’re seeing it now five months into the data.
