The housing market isn’t done with record prices. At least not yet.
According to the latest National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability and Housing Affordability Index released Tuesday, the national median single-family existing-home price hit $429,400 in Q2 2025. This marks a record high for home prices, up 1.7% year-over-year.
But the growth rate has slowed from Q1’s 3.4% pace, and fewer markets are posting gains. Only 75% of U.S. metros saw year-over-year price increases in Q2, down from 83% in Q1. Just 5% saw double-digit gains, which is less than half the share from earlier this year.
Where Prices Are Still Climbing Fast
Median prices for existing single-family homes increased year-over-year in every region except the South, where prices remained flat:
- Northeast: $527,200 (+6.1% increase YoY)
- Midwest: $328,800 (+3.5%)
- West: $646,100 (+0.6%)
- South: $376,300 (No change)
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, says Midwest buyers are still finding value, while the Northeast’s supply crunch is keeping prices high.
“Home prices have been rising faster in the Midwest due to affordability, and the Northeast, due to limited inventory,” Yun said.
10 Metros With Largest Annual Price Gains
The metros with the biggest price increases in Q2 2025 were:
- Toledo, OH: 10.5%
- Jackson, MS: 10.5%
- Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY: 9.6%
- New Haven-Milford, CT: 9%
- Reading, PA: 8.3%
- Springfield, MO: 8.2%
- Akron, OH: 8.1%
- Montgomery, AL: 7.9%
- Cleveland-Elyria, OH: 7.8%
- Rochester, NY: 7.8%
Markets Seeing a Slowdown (But No Crash)
Not every region is seeing the same growth. The West saw just a 0.6% uptick, while the South held flat. In markets like Florida and Texas, a surge in new home construction is putting some downward pressure on resale prices.
More markets are seeing declines, with 24% of metros posting annual price drops in Q2, up from 17% in Q1. But Yun describes this as a “price correction,” not the start of a crash.
He points to strong job growth (7 million more jobs than pre-COVID) as a sign that the underlying fundamentals are still healthy. If mortgage rates drop, pent-up demand could quickly re-energize buying activity, especially in high-growth states like Idaho, Utah, the Carolinas, Florida, and Texas.
And while a slowdown may be happening, housing economists still see home price growth over the next couple of years. NAR’s latest forecast expects median prices to increase 1% by the end of 2025 before accelerating to 4% growth in 2026.
Affordability Remains a Challenge
NAR’s report breaks down the numbers that matter to buyers:
- Typical existing-home monthly payment (with 20% down): $2,256, up 6.5% from Q1
- Share of income spent by typical families: 25.7%, up from 24.4% last quarter
- First-time buyer monthly payment (10% down on $365K home): $2,212—38.7% of income
While payments are slightly lower than a year ago thanks to minor rate shifts, the quarter-over-quarter jump shows how quickly affordability can tighten.
Bottom line is that when affability remains a challenge, prices aren’t falling off a cliff. The gap between buyer budgets and current prices is real, and the markets where affordability is still within reach are likely to stay competitive.
