If you tuned in for this week’s episode of The Real Word, you heard BAM co-founder Byron Lazine talk about the NAR-commissioned D.A.N.G.E.R. Report published in 2015. And if you were listening closely, you probably heard him talk about a new report on its way from the same author, Stefan Swanepoel.
Well, it’s out. About a decade after the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report made 10 predictions about the real estate industry, we now have the Real Estate Opportunity Report.
Starting with a look back at those 10 predictions and how accurate they’ve proven to be, Swanepoel’s new report spells out 20 opportunities for real estate agents, the organized real estate industry, state regulatory agencies, and key stakeholders.
Those opportunities provide a strategic roadmap for agents, brokers and all responsible parties to blaze a better path forward.
The insights in the new study are based on Swanepoel’s in-depth interviews with over 50 of the industry’s most influential CEOs and leaders, including Lazine, who knows first-hand how thorough Swanepoel is with his research.
Amid the aftermath of billion-dollar settlements related to antitrust cases, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and a deepening affordability crisis, The Opportunity Report outlines 20 pathways for stakeholders to seize opportunities during this period of transformation.
20 Opportunities in Today’s Real Estate Industry
The T3 60 Opportunity Report explores 20 key opportunities in today’s industry to guide real estate professionals through 2025 and beyond. In the report, those 20 opportunities are broken into four groups based on the parties being addressed:
- Real estate brokers and agents
- Organized real estate
- State regulatory agencies
- Key stakeholders
Opportunities for Real Estate Brokers and Agents
1. Decouple Buyer and Seller Agents’ Compensation
2. Establish Best Practices for Buyer Services
3. Enhance Credibility with the Consumer
4. Elevate Agents: A New Perspective on Their Role
5. Digitize the Real Estate Transaction with AI
6. Thrive Amid Commission Compression
7. Reinvent the Brokerage Model for a New Era
8. Harness the Power of Mergers
9. Maximize the Strength of Teams
Opportunities for Organized Real Estate
10. Drive Market Transparency: The Clear Cooperation Path Forward
11. Separate MLS Organizations from Realtor Associations
12. Cultivate the Future of Real Estate with a Modern New Professional
13. Maximizing Value Through Consolidated MLSs
14. Rebuilding Trust: A Strategy to Reengage NAR Members
15. Evolving Beyond the Three-Way Agreement
16. Realtor Associations Must Streamline and Unite
17. Reimagine What Realtor Association Leadership Means
18. Prioritize Advocacy as NAR’s Central Mission (as Rob Hahn suggested at BAM Mania)
Opportunity for State Regulatory Agencies
19. Enhance Professionalism with Strong Licensing Requirements
Opportunity for Key Stakeholders
20. Make Homeownership an Affordable Dream Again
Details on each of the 20 opportunities listed above are available in the full Opportunity Report, which, thanks to the sponsorship of Homes.com, is available for download at no cost.
The Opportunity Report, like the DANGER Report before it, is a valuable asset for navigating the changes coming to the real estate industry. Our sponsorship of this report reflects our belief that new business models can and will emerge from these crossroads. Homes.com is poised to complement these new models, and we are excited to work with our partners in the industry to deliver even more for our customers.
Evaluating the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report 10 Years Later
The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report was researched in 2104 and published in 2015 by Stefan Swanepoel, with support from T3 Sixty and the National Association of Realtors®.
The report detailed the potential risks facing the real estate industry—highlighting threats, black swans, and potential disruptors. In shedding light on those risks, it offered a roadmap for a course correction.
Unfortunately, many industry stakeholders, including NAR, were slow to adopt the recommended changes in the report. And over the past decade, that hesitancy has caused several of the predicted dangers to come to pass.
With the assistance of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, one of the leaders interviewed for the Opportunity Report provided the following assessment of the D.A.N.G.E.R. report and its 10 predictions:
“The predictions made in the D.A.N.G.E.R. Report regarding the future of the real estate industry have proven remarkably prescient, particularly considering the recent developments stemming from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement. Here’s a breakdown of the key predictions, their real-world manifestations, and an evaluation of their accuracy.”
We’re including those 10 predictions here, along with their accuracy scores. Full details on the real-world manifestations are included in the “About” section of the Opportunity Report.
10 Predictions with their Accuracy Scores:
- Masses of Marginal Agents Destroy (Industry) Reputation (Accuracy score = 85%)
- Commissions Spiral Downward (95%)
- Agent Teams Threaten the Survival of Brokerages (75%)
- Decline in the Relevancy of Agents (90%)
- Commissions Concentrate into Fewer Hands (85%)
- Technology Becomes a Runaway Train (80%)
- FSBO Develops into a Do-It-Yourself Model (75%)
- Regulatory Tsunami Hits (100%)
- New Business Models Go Mainstream (90%)
- The Agent Is Removed from the Transaction (60%)
The D.A.N.G.E.R. Report is available as a free download at dangerreport.com.
