You don’t need a Fed pivot to have a moment. This is your moment.
Mortgage rates just dropped to their lowest point of the year. And while we haven’t seen a single rate cut in 2025, the market just handed buyers, and their agents, a real-time advantage. On Monday, the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.57%, the lowest level of the year so far.
This is exactly the kind of shift that turns hesitant shoppers into serious buyers. But only if someone helps them make the connection.
Byron Lazine broke down the numbers in today’s Hot Sheet.
Read on for the highlights and key takeaways for agents.
Why the Drop Matters (Even Without a Fed Cut)
The drop in mortgage rates wasn’t driven by policy. It was driven by the bond market, which reacted quickly to last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report.
That pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.20%, with room to fall even further if the economic data continues to soften. Logan Mohtashami’s forecast for 2025 called for mortgage rates to fall between 5.75% and 7.25%.
This week’s number lands right in the middle of that range. But we are getting closer to the floor.
That’s why Mohtashami believes we may see even more relief in the second half of the year, assuming labor markets deteriorate and bond yields drop again. In other words, this might not be the bottom, but it is a lot closer to it than the peak.
A Mortgage Rate Reminder
On today’s Hot Sheet, Byron drove home a simple point: rates can move fast. One solid jobs report, one Powell speech, or one market overreaction could erase the gains we just saw.
You cannot assume this window will still be open next week or even tomorrow.
So if you’re working with buyers who told you they were waiting for rates to come down, now’s the time to reach out. Not next month. Now.
The Script Behind the Opportunity
Tom Toole said it best in a recent Instagram post:
“Phone calls create conversations and conversations create appointments. The rate drop is a moment in time and a gift for real estate agents to re-engage customers, clients and people in your CRM. Don’t let the opportunity pass you by today.”
If you’re not sure what to say, here’s a simple structure from Tom to get the conversation rolling:
“It’s [Name] with [brokerage]. Not sure if you saw mortgage rates hit their lowest levels all year this week…
“How would a lower mortgage payment impact your real estate plans over the next 6-12 months?”
Sometimes all it takes is a reminder that the market moves quickly.
A Quick Recap of the Key Numbers
Here’s what you should have on hand when talking to your buyers:
- Current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.57% (Mortgage Daily News)
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.20% as of August 4, 2025
- Forecasted mortgage rate range for 2025: 5.75% to 7.25% (Mohtashami)
- Forecasted 10-year yield range for 2025: 3.80% to 4.70%
If bond yields continue to fall, and especially if jobless claims rise, we could see more downward pressure on mortgage rates in Q4.
That said, this drop is not a long-term guarantee. Use it to start conversations while it’s still fresh.
