Key Details:
- Realtor.com data reveals how migration trends from January 2021 to September 2024 could influence key states in the 2024 election, with both blue and red voters gravitating toward specific regions.
- The analysis highlights which states may shift politically based on new arrivals and retention rates, offering a unique perspective on potential election outcomes.
Election Day is just around the corner, and Realtor.com’s latest report sheds light on the connection between recent home shopping activity and voter migration across the U.S.—especially in key swing states. By analyzing home search patterns and migration data from January 2021 to September 2024, the report reveals how shifts in blue and red voter populations could influence outcomes in these states.
With insights from proprietary state-to-state migration data gathered since the last presidential inauguration, Realtor.com’s findings suggest that the U.S. electoral landscape could look quite different this November. As people move across state lines, neither populations nor opinions are fixed, which is why the U.S. electoral map is constantly shifting as people move from one state to another.
To better understand how migration trends could shape the 2024 election, Realtor.com used online home shopping traffic data, combined with 2020 presidential election county-level results. Based on that data, between January 2021 and September 2024:
- 56.5% of online traffic on Realtor.com came from blue shoppers
- 41.7% were red shoppers, and
- 1.8% were independents
Read on to see how the past four years of voter migration could impact how each state votes this November.
Top Destinations for Blue and Red Shoppers
To determine which states were top destinations for blue and red voters, Realtor.com analyzed out-of-state blue and red home shopper traffic to each state relative to total out-of-state traffic.
Blue home shoppers were most likely to move to—
- Florida (with 12.9% of out-of-state blue voter traffic)
- Texas (5.8%)
- North Carolina (5.1%)
- Tennessee (3.9%)
- Pennsylvania (3.9%)
Red home shoppers had similar preferences:
- Florida (with 12.8% of out-of-state red voter traffic)
- Texas (5.8%)
- North Carolina (5.3%)
Both voter groups are migrating in larger numbers to the South (particularly Florida and Texas), likely due to the combination of affordable housing and warmer climates.
Some states received a higher influx of blue home shoppers compared to red—and vice-versa.
The influx of blue voters in New Jersey was 1.4 percentage points higher than the influx of red voters, while Tennessee saw a greater influx of red voters compared to blue.
Retention Rates: Where Blue and Red Voters Stay
Blue and red voters are also less likely to leave certain states. And here again, both sides share multiple favorites.
States with the highest retention rates among blue voters:
- Florida (with 76.1% of blue home shopping traffic remaining in state)
- Michigan (74.2%)
- Ohio (73.6%)
- Texas (71.8%)
- Wisconsin (71.5%)
States with the highest retention rates among red voters:
- Michigan (with 75.6% of red home shopping traffic remaining in state)
- Florida (74.4%)
- Texas (73.9%)
- Ohio (73.4%)
- Wisconsin (70.7%)
Some states are more appealing to in-state blue or red voters. New Mexico retains 2.8% more blue home shoppers compared to red, while New York retains more red shoppers.
Potential Red and Blue Shifts in 2024
Based on out-of-state home shopper traffic for blue and red voters, nine states could trend bluer in the 2024 presidential election, including two swing states:
- Alaska
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Washington, D.C.
- Florida
- Maine
- Nevada (swing)
- Ohio
- Wisconsin (swing)
On the flipside, 21 states could trend redder, including solid red states from 2020 and three swing states. Of those, 12 voted decisively for Trump in 2020. The other nine voted Biden by a wide margin in the last election but could shift redder this time around, though probably not enough to make a difference in the final tally for each state.
Swing states Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina could also shift redder in this election.
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- North Dakota
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Wyoming
- California
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Minnesota
- New York
- Oregon
- Washington
- Arizona (swing)
- Georgia (swing)
- North Carolina (swing)
Political leanings in Pennsylvania and Michigan are more uncertain; both had higher blue influxes but also a greater outflow of blue home shoppers.
Future Implications
With the steady flow of out-of-state home shopper traffic to markets with more affordable housing and a lower cost of living, particularly since the pandemic, it will be interesting to see how these migration trends could influence voter trends in the upcoming election.
That said, other factors will come into play this November. Voters on both sides, especially Gen Z voters, are prioritizing housing affordability above other voting concerns. For Millennials, Gen X and Boomers, the economy is an overriding concern.
Across the U.S., agents are talking to potential buyers and sellers who are in waiting mode until after the election. Once we finally know who will be in the White House for the next four years, more people may decide to move ahead with their plans.
In neither case will the world come to an end, but voters on both sides (as well as independents and undecideds) will depend as much as, if not more than ever, on your expertise and guidance.
