Two Reports, One Clear Trend: Home Sales Slowed in July

Home sales dropped in July according to both Redfin and the National Association of Realtors®.

Redfin data shows the number of closed home sales dropped to 285,000 in July, the lowest total in almost two years. NAR’s existing-home sales report for the same month shows a 1.7% drop from June, down to a 4.06 million annual pace. 

Redfin and NAR use different methods to count sales. Both point to a market that cooled in July.

Here are the highlights from both reports, and what they mean for housing.

July Home Sales

NAR’s seasonally adjusted annual rate for existing home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month from June, to 4.06 million. It climbed 0.7% from a year earlier. 

Redfin’s raw count of closed sales came in at 285,000, down 4.1% from June and the lowest point in nearly two years. Redfin’s own seasonally adjusted rate slipped 2.2% from June.

New listings dropped to their lowest point since October 2024. Sellers are pulling back at the same time buyers are.

The slowdown hit some metros harder than others. Sales fell fastest year over year in:

• San Antonio, down 12.6%
• Dallas, down 10%
• Fort Worth, down 9.9%
• Detroit, down 9.3%
• Seattle, down 9.1%

Seattle stands out for a few reasons: 

• The median home price there is $809,479, close to double the national number. 
• Layoffs at Microsoft and Amazon have left tech workers cautious about big purchases. 
• Pending sales in Seattle fell 15.6% from a year ago, the steepest drop of any metro tracked.

Why Buyers Are Pulling Back

While sales are down, home prices sit near record highs. NAR’s median price hit $434,100 in July, up 2% from a year earlier and the 37th straight month of annual increases. Redfin’s median came in at $407,730, the highest July number on record.

Mortgage rates added to the pressure. The average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.54% in July, the highest mark in a year according to Redfin.

Buyers who make an offer are backing out at a higher rate. Redfin found that 14% of July’s home-sale agreements fell through, the highest share since 2023.

Redfin’s head of economics research, Dr. Chen Zhao, stated: 

“The housing market suffered from a mid-summer slump in July as would-be buyers grappled with record-high home prices, increasing mortgage rates and growing financial insecurity. 

“Many Americans simply can’t afford today’s housing costs, while others are holding off because they’re worried about the economy and/or their job security. 

“The silver lining is that the buyers who can afford a home may be able to negotiate on price and get concessions from sellers who are eager to offload their house.”

Not Every Market Is Slowing

A handful of metros bucked July’s national decline, with closed sales rising fastest year over year in:

• West Palm Beach, up 17.1%
• San Francisco, up 8.5%
• Milwaukee, up 7%

West Palm Beach and San Francisco share a common thread: buyers with money to spend and less sensitivity to rate changes. San Francisco gets an extra lift from the AI boom, which is pulling in new residents and new demand.

Milwaukee’s story looks different. Homes there carry a median price around $383,805, compared with Redfin’s national median of $407,730. The number of homes for sale in Milwaukee keeps climbing.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index improved to 103.3 in July, up from 98.3 a year ago. Every region posted a gain.

NAR’s chief economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun, pointed to affordability gains in smaller markets:

“Though the national data shows stabilization, there are notable local market variations. In smaller cities, and particularly in the Midwest, an annual household income of $60,000 would be sufficient to buy a median-priced home. Working with an agent who is a REALTOR® will help you better pinpoint what’s happening in your area.”

Despite the modest improvement in affordability, first-time-buyers made up 29% of July transactions, according to NAR, down from 33% in June. 

Cash sales ticked up to 26% of transactions, while individual investors and second-home buyers dropped to 14%, down sharply from 20% a year ago.

Homes are also sitting slightly longer: 29 days on market per NAR, up from 28 last month.

These are national numbers, of course. What’s happening where you are could look very different. And those are the numbers your buyers and sellers will be most interested in.