BAM Key Details:

  • According to a new Redfin report, home prices are not falling in any U.S. metro for the first time since July 2022. 
  • The national median home sale price increased 4.8% year over year, and the median monthly mortgage payment climbed 15% from a year ago, reaching an all-time high.

A new report from Redfin highlights a housing market situation that hasn’t happened in almost two years: home prices are not falling in any of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas. 

During the four weeks ending April 28, 2024, the median home sale price in all these metros increased year over year or stayed flat. The last time that happened was in July 2022. 

Meanwhile, the national median sale price climbed 4.8% year over year to a near-record $383,188. And as mortgage rates remain above 7%, homeowners without a need to move who are locked into much lower rates are more likely to stay put. 

For potential buyers, high home prices and mortgage rates have driven the median monthly housing payment up 15% year over year to a record $2,890. Metros driving that home price increase are mainly affluent urban hubs, with a pair of more affordable metros thrown in. 

Metros with the biggest annual home price increases:

  1. Anaheim, CA (22.8%) 
  2. Detroit (14.9%)
  3. San Jose, CA (13.6%)
  4. West Palm Beach, FL (13.4%)
  5. New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%)

Metros with the smallest annual home price increases:

  1. Dallas (unchanged)
  2. Austin (0.3%)
  3. San Antonio (0.6%)
  4. Fort Worth (1.9%)
  5. Tampa (2.2%)

Low inventory is keeping prices on an upward trend

While new listings nationwide are up 15% year over year, they’re still below typical April levels, with fewer new listings this April than any previous year on record aside from 2023 and 2020. 

The annual increase is also inflated due to the Easter effect. Easter this year landed on March 31, outside the four weeks analyzed for this report. Last year, it fell into a comparable time period in April, impacting buyer and seller activity. 

With economic indicators pointing to higher-for-longer interest rates, some homeowners are feeling the lock-in effect more and deciding to stay put rather than list their homes.

Rising mortgage rates are softening buyer demand

Mortgage-purchase applications declined week over week by 2%, indicating a slowdown in buyer activity due to persistently high mortgage rates coupled with high home prices—which have together driven the median monthly mortgage payment to an all-time high. 

Yet there are still enough buyers out there to outpace inventory growth. The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index is up 3% from the previous month, approaching its highest point since August.

Meanwhile, at the May 1 FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates steady, though Fed Chairman Jerome Powell quelled fears that the Fed might be considering new rate hikes. He also kept open the possibility of rate cuts later this year. 

The Fed meeting is unlikely to push mortgage rates down–but the good news is that it won’t push them up, either, which could have happened if the Fed took 2024 rate cuts off the table. Even though housing costs shouldn’t climb much more, they will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, which could push more buyers away. But for serious house hunters who can afford today’s mortgage rates and find a home they love, jumping on it now isn’t a bad idea, given the fact that inventory is low and costs aren’t dropping anytime soon.

Chen Zhao

Redfin Economics Research Lead

Key housing market trends

Leading indicators of homebuying demand and activity:

  • Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.41% (May 1, 2024), up from 6.1% one month earlier and near the highest point since November 2023 (Source: Mortgage News Daily)
  • Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.17% for the week ending April 25, 2024—up from 6.79% one month earlier and near the highest level since Nov 2023 (Source: Freddie Mac)
  • Mortgage purchase applications (seasonally adjusted): down 2% from one week earlier (as of the week ending April 26) (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association)
  • Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted): up 3% from one month earlier (as of the week ending April 28) 
  • Touring activity: up 33% from the start of 2024 (as of April 28) (Source: ShowingTime)
  • Google searches for “homes for sale”: Unchanged from a month earlier (Source: Google Trends)

National key housing market data (highlights for the four weeks ending April 28, 2024):

  • Median home sale price: $383,188—up 4.8% year over year and just $73 shy of the all-time high
  • Median asking price: $420,450—up 7.7% year over year and marking an all-time high with the biggest increase since September 2022
  • Median monthly mortgage payment: $2,890, with a 10% down payment—up 14.7% year over year and reaching an all-time high
  • Pending sales: 88,408—down 3.4% year over year
  • New listings: 101,065—up 15.2% year over year and marking the biggest annual increase in almost three years
  • Active listings: 856,350—up 11.8% year over year
  • Months of supply: 3.4 months—up 0.6 points (4-5 months of supply is considered balanced with lower numbers indicating a seller’s market)
  • Share of homes off the market in two weeks: 43.9%, down from 47%
  • Share of homes sold above the final list price: 34 days—unchanged from a year ago
  • Share of homes with a price drop: 6.2%, up 1.9 percentage points and reaching the highest level since November 2022
  • Average sale-to-list-price ratio: 99.3%, up 0.1 percentage points

Metro-level highlights

Here are the metro-level housing market highlights aside from median home sale prices. 

Pending Sales

Pending sales increased year over year in 10 of the 50 metros analyzed. 

Metros with the biggest annual increases in pending sales

  1. San Jose, CA (15%)
  2. Milwaukee, WI (5.5%)
  3. Cincinnati, OH (5.1%)
  4. Seattle, WA (5.1%)
  5. Columbus, OH (4.7%)

Metros with the biggest annual declines in pending sales:

  1. Phoenix, AZ (-13.8%)
  2. Riverside, CA (-12.2%)
  3. Atlanta, GA (-11.9%)
  4. Houston, TX (-11.8%)
  5. Jacksonville, FL (-11.3%)

New Listings

New listings increased year over year in all but one of the 50 of the U.S. metros analyzed, with these five metros in the lead:

  1. San Jose, CA (53.2%)
  2. Oakland, CA (34.4%)
  3. Phoenix (28.6%)
  4. Seattle (28.4%)
  5. Miami (28%)

New listings declined year over year in only one U.S. metro: Milwaukee, WI, with a 0.3% annual drop. 

Read the full report for more information, including charts and methodology.