BAM Key Details: 

  • CoreLogic released its Home Price Insights report for February 2024 with HPI data through December 2023 and HPI forecasts through December 2024. 
  • No states reported year-over-year home price declines for December 2023, and the highest annual gains were in Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Among metros, MIami saw the highest annual gains at 10.7%. 
  • Spokane–Spokane Valley, WA, ranked at the top of the five metros most at risk (>70% probability) of home price declines in the next 12 months. 

CoreLogic’s U.S. Home Price Insights report for February 2024 covers home price data through December 2023 along with forecasts through December 2024. 

Year over year in December 2023, home prices rose by 5.5%. Compared with November, home prices in December dropped -0.1%. 

The CoreLogic HPI forecast includes a month-over-month decline of -0.2% from December 2023 to January 2024 and a year–over–year increase of 2.8% from December 2023 to December 2024. 

CoreLogic-MoM-and-YoY-home-price-growth-and-projections-through-Dec2024

Source: CoreLogic

Strong job market fosters continued growth in home prices

Single-family home price growth in the U.S. continued its gradual climb from in the final month of 2023 to 5.5% with Northeastern states seeing the largest gains. For the first time since late 2022, no state or district reported year-over-year declines. 

A robust job market drives up mortgage and housing demand, as noted in CoreLogic’s most recent Loan Performance Index report. And according to current data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 353,000 new jobs were added in January 2024. 

Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale remains low. 

Last winter’s mortgage rate surge impacted seasonal home price changes in many markets and suggests that annual gains may have reached the cycle peak and will level off in the coming months. But while appreciation is projected to slow, home prices will continue to extend to new highs entering the typically busy spring homebuying season. Also, while the recent dip in mortgage rates help improve some affordability challenges, additional rate declines may not arrive until the second half of 2024.

The 2024 homebuying season should enjoy a boost because of pent-up demand, as well as a robust job market and wage growth. Geographic patterns in price gains continued to favor housing markets in the Northeast and the South, especially those that remain more affordable and have lagged in home price increases over the past couple of years.

Selma Hepp

Chief Economist for CoreLogic

Home price increases by state

Nationally, home prices rose 5.5% year over year in December 2023. No states reported annual declines in home prices. 

The states with the largest annual increases in home prices: 

  • Rhode Island (13.3%)
  • New Jersey (11.3%)
  • Connecticut (10.5%)
  • New Hampshire (9.7%)
  • Wisconsin (8.8%)
  • Maine (8.3%)
  • Michigan (8.0%)
  • Missouri (7.9%)
  • Ohio (7.7%)
  • Illinois (7.5%)
CoreLogic-HPI-change-by-state-Dec-2023

Source: CoreLogic

Metro level changes in HPI

The map below shows home price increases in 10 large U.S. metros in December 2023:

  • Miami (10.7%)
  • San Diego (8.1%)
  • Chicago (6.8%)
  • Boston (6.7%)
  • Washington D.C. (6.2%)
  • Phoenix (5.0%)
  • Las Vegas (4.7%)
  • Los Angeles (4.2%)
  • Denver (2.6%)
  • Houston (1.4%)
CoreLogic-YOY-home-price-change-by-metro-Dec-2023

Source: CoreLogic

Markets most at risk of home price decline

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) offers a monthly snapshot of the overall health of housing markets across the U.S. 

The most recent points to Spokane–Spokane Valley, WA, as the most at-risk metro, with a 70%-plus probability of home price decline over the next 12 months. Next in line— 

  • West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach FL
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL
  • Atlanta-Sandy-Springs-Roswell, GA
  • Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

All five are at “very high” risk of price decline, with a probability rating above 70%. 

CoreLogic-5-markets-most-at-risk-of-home-price-decline-Dec-2023

Source: CoreLogic

The CoreLogic HPI is the fastest source of home-price valuation information in the industry, providing complete home-price index datasets five weeks after the month’s end. 

Byron Lazine reviewed CoreLogic’s HPI report for February on Tuesday’s Hot Sheet and recommended the data and charts as resources worth sharing with clients to shed light on home price trends. 

It’s very accurate, if you’re comparing it to Case-Shiller as the gold standard, but you get it 30 days sooner. So, I really appreciate what they’re doing over there at CoreLogic.

Byron Lazine

Read the full report for more details, including methodology.