Key Details:
- According to a Realtor.com analysis, swing states have remained more affordable than blue states, averaging about 30-40% lower on a per-square-foot basis.
- Median listing prices in swing states have risen by 26% since 2020, compared to a 34% increase in red states and a 25% rise in blue states.
It’s no surprise that home affordability remains a critical factor for prospective home buyers across the U.S. And as the country gears up for Election Day, it’s a topic that’s important to more than 80% of the voting population.
Housing costs and policies aimed at making homeownership more accessible are likely top of mind for many voters, with significant differences in affordability across red, blue, and swing states. Realtor.com’s latest analysis highlights just how varied these markets are, offering insights into how housing costs in these regions could impact voters’ decisions.
The Red, Blue, and Swing State Divide
According to the data from Realtor.com, swing states continue to mirror red states more closely than blue states in terms of median listing price per square foot.
Currently, the median listing price per square foot varies across state types:
- Blue states average $322 per square foot.
- Red states average $192 per square foot.
- Swing states average $216 per square foot. This is about 30-40% less than blue states and 10-20% higher than red states.
Overall, data from Realtor.com shows median home listing prices averaged $399,000 in swing states in September 2024—a 26% increase since 2020.
In contrast, red states saw a 34% increase to $371,129, and blue states increased by $25% to $554,321. These differences reflect the varying degrees of affordability and demand across state lines.
“When it comes to home prices, swing states have mirrored red states much more than blue states over the past four years. If rising home prices since the last election matter for voters next week, it implies that swing state voters may have federal housing policy on their minds much less than voters in blue states but perhaps a little more than voters in red states.”
Presidential Campaign Promises and Their Impact on Home Prices
Both candidates in the upcoming election have pitched housing policies aimed at improving affordability and increasing supply, especially in swing states where voters may feel the pinch of rising costs.
Vice President Kamala Harris has put forward a plan that includes tax credits for builders to stimulate the construction of 3 million homes. In addition, her proposal includes up to $25,000 down-payment assistance for first-time buyers. Although Harris has highlighted her policies as a way to reduce housing costs, her down-payment assistance plan has faced criticism. Many worry that providing this assistance could actually drive housing prices higher.
Former president Donald Trump has addressed housing costs by focusing on broader economic issues, attributing inflation and rising house prices to the current administration’s policies. His plan includes creating tax breaks for homebuyers, reducing “unnecessary” building regulations, and opening some federal land for residential development. Trump also asserts that he will lower housing costs by addressing inflation and curbing illegal immigration.
Housing affordability is a hot topic for just about everyone right now, and seeing the differences in home prices across red, blue, and swing states really highlights how location shapes the market. As we get closer to Election Day, these price trends could play a role in how voters feel about housing policies and what they hope to see change.
