BAM Key Details:
- Redfin reports sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% nationally in August, the widest gap since 2013, with an estimated 1,534,918 sellers active against just 972,300 buyers.
- Nashville posted the strongest buyer’s market in the country at 139.3%, followed by Miami at 138.3% and Houston at 130.9%.
- Only 5 of the 49 metros analyzed remained seller’s markets.
- Home prices rose 5.5% year over year across those 5 seller’s markets, compared with a 1.6% increase across all buyer’s markets combined.
Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% nationally in August, the widest gap Redfin has recorded since 2013
More listings and softer demand are giving buyers more leverage, but that doesn’t mean prices are dropping.
We’re looking at the national numbers, the Sun Belt metros driving the trend, where conditions are most favorable to buyers, the handful of metros where sellers still have the upper hand, and what this means for the buyers and sellers you’re talking to right now.
The National Numbers Behind The Record Gap
The national surplus climbed from 52.1% in July to 57.9% in August. Just one month earlier, that July number was itself the second-widest surplus on record.
The numbers behind the surplus:
- Sellers: an estimated 1,534,918 active in the market, up 3.9% from July. That’s the highest seller count since early 2020, and the biggest one-month increase in Redfin’s records.
- Buyers: an estimated 972,300 active in the market, up just 0.1% from July, which itself marked the lowest buyer count on record.
Redfin defines a buyer’s market as one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. A seller’s market is the reverse, with buyers outnumbering sellers by more than 10%. Anything within that 10% range on either side counts as balanced.
Eight markets fell into the “balanced” category in August:
- Baltimore, MD
- Boston, MA
- Chicago, IL
- Cleveland, OH
- New Brunswick, NJ
- New York City, NY
- Providence, RI
- San Jose, CA
Sun Belt Metros Lead The Country
Nashville is the strongest buyer’s market in the country right now. Sellers there outnumbered buyers by 139.3% in August, a record for the metro dating back to 2013.
Miami comes in second at 138.3%, and Houston follows at 130.9%. Here’s the full top 10, all in the Sun Belt:
- Nashville, TN: 139.3%
- Miami, FL: 138.3%
- Houston, TX: 130.9%
- Orlando, FL: 121.5%
- Las Vegas, NV: 117.1%
- San Antonio, TX: 116.3%
- Austin, TX: 115.0%
- Dallas, TX: 107.6%
- Atlanta, GA: 95.6%
- Phoenix, AZ: 94.8%
Four of the 10 are in Texas. Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas and Nashville each posted a record-high surplus in August.
Nearly three out of every four metros Redfin analyzed, 36 of 49, now qualify as buyer’s markets.
A big reason for that is active homebuilding, especially in Sunbelt metros. Nashville, Texas and Florida all have strong construction pipelines, and new homes keep coming onto the market even as demand cools.
Meanwhile, in Miami, rising insurance costs and HOA fees are pricing local buyers out. And climate risk adds to the pressure.
Still, for the most part, buyers in these markets can afford to wait. Listings are sitting on the market long enough that house hunters don’t feel rushed, and plenty of sellers are willing to haggle a bit on price and terms.
Where Buyer’s Markets Got Even More Buyer Friendly
Between July and August, the surplus grew in 22 of the nation’s 35 buyer’s markets. The biggest monthly increases:
- Orlando: 122% in August, up from 100% in July
- Seattle: 72% in August, up from 55% in July
- Las Vegas: 117% in August, up from 102% in July
Conditions eased in a smaller group of markets. Here’s where metros posted the biggest drops in the seller surplus from July to August:
- West Palm Beach: 65% in August, down from 81% in July
- Miami: 138% in August, down from 149% in July, still the country’s second-strongest buyer’s market
- Fort Worth: 87% in August, down from 96% in July
The Five Metros Still Favoring Sellers
Only five of the 49 metros Redfin analyzed are seller’s markets today.
The top five are:
- Nassau County, NY: 27.6% fewer sellers than buyers
- Newark, NJ: 20.7% fewer sellers than buyers
- Montgomery County, PA: 20.3% fewer sellers than buyers
- Milwaukee, WI: 17.7% fewer sellers than buyers
- San Francisco, CA: 11.7% fewer sellers than buyers
San Francisco has qualified as a seller’s market only twice in the past four years, this month and this past June.
Limited new construction explains most of the pattern in greater New York City. Housing supply has stayed tight there for years while the region’s job market keeps demand strong.
San Francisco’s situation is different. Job and wealth gains tied to the AI boom are fueling a run of new sales there.
Prices are another factor that keeps these markets more favorable to sellers. Home values rose 5.5% year over year across the five seller’s markets in August, compared with 1.6% across all buyer’s markets combined.
The Agent Play
Dr. Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, laid out what this means for buyers and sellers right now.
“With sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today’s house hunters can afford to be choosy. Even during a time when housing costs are elevated, the surplus of sellers over buyers makes it a good time to be a house hunter, in some respects.
“In most markets, buyers should negotiate on price and ask for concessions like repairs or help with closing costs. Buyers shouldn’t assume every seller will budge, especially on a desirable home that’s already priced well, but they don’t need to rush into a deal that doesn’t feel right.
“For sellers, the message is almost the opposite: Work harder to stand out. Take stock of how other homes are priced, make sure your home is prepped and be prepared to negotiate. With so many competing listings, sellers who want to find a buyer quickly should price competitively from the start.”
For agents working with clients on both sides of a deal, here’s the play in a nutshell:
- Encourage buyers to negotiate and ask for concessions, without expecting every seller to fold.
- Encourage sellers to compete on pricing and prep rather than wait out the market.
Sellers today hold plenty of equity to sell and still come out ahead. The job market is still strong enough that few face real pressure to sell fast.
None of this points to crashing prices. But it does signal more room for buyers to negotiate, provided they can afford to be in the market at all.
The open question is how long Sun Belt inventory keeps building before local demand catches up. Until then, expect buyers in these markets to keep holding the leverage, and expect sellers to keep needing sharper pricing and better prep to close a deal.
