What the Fed Just Revealed About Real Estate Commissions

When the National Association of Realtors agreed to a $418 million antitrust settlement in March 2024, it sent shockwaves through the real estate industry. But the full impact of that decision—and what it means for agents—has been hard to pin down.

Now, a new report from the Federal Reserve sheds light on what’s actually happening with commission rates across the U.S.

Based on a massive dataset from CoreLogic, the report tracks buyer agent commissions over nearly three decades, dives into policy changes like buyer agreements and rebate bans, and breaks down how rates vary by region and home price. 

Here are the five biggest takeaways for real estate pros.

1. Commission Rates Are Declining—But Slowly

Despite all the noise, the average buyer’s agent commission has dropped just 0.3 percentage points in more than 20 years, from about 3% in the late 1990s to 2.7% today.

That’s a modest shift, not a free fall. And even with new rules rolling out, a 2.5% or 3% commission to both the buyer’s agent and the seller’s agent remains common in many areas.

• In 2002, most listings offered exactly 3% to buyer’s agents.
• By 2022, more listings offered 2.5% or even 2%, though 3% was still the most frequent rate.

The report suggests that while the standard is weakening, it’s not disappearing.

2. Your Market Matters More Than Ever

Commission rates aren’t just trending; they’re splintering by region.

The Fed found that high-cost markets like California, the Northeast, and the Pacific Northwest tend to offer lower buyer agent commissions. In contrast, lower-priced states (think Kansas, Mississippi, Alabama) are holding the line closer to 3%.

In places like New York City:

• The median and most common buyer commission is 2%.
• Even there, though, a strong local norm still exists; it’s just a lower one.

Local pricing and expectations shape commission offers more than national trends or policy changes.

3. Zillow Didn’t Kill the Commission

Even with more buyer-side transparency from sites like Zillow and Redfin, commissions have stayed about the same. According to the Fed report authors this is because: 

• Low-commission listings underperform: They sit longer and are less likely to sell.
• Brokerages still “steer” clients toward full-commission listings, making it harder for discount brokers to compete.

The data confirms what agents already know: transparency matters, but perceived value and industry norms still drive behavior.

4. Buyer Agreements and Rebate Bans Have Little Impact

Buyer representation agreements, which were effective in 15 states before th NAR settlement, and banned commission rebates haven’t created major change.

According to the Fed’s analysis:

• Neither policy made a statistically significant dent in average commission rates.
• The impact is just a few basis points, not enough to matter once you factor in house prices.

5. The Real Disruption Could Still Be Ahead

The Fed believes the full effect of the 2024 NAR settlement will take time to play out. But early signs suggest that the industry is already adapting. 

In its report, the Fed cited a recent episode of The Daily podcast by New York Times author Debra Kamin. In it, Kamin suggested that agents’ workarounds are a big part of commissions staying at or near 3%.

The Fed report authors highlighted factors that make it difficult to predict any long-term impacts the settlement will have, including:

• Sellers’ agents can no longer advertise compensation on the MLS—but many are now sharing that info offline or through private networks.
• The Clear Cooperation Policy has been relaxed, giving listing agents more flexibility to skip the MLS entirely.

The Fed’s big takeaway is that enforcement and innovation, not just rule changes, will determine what happens next.