If you’re a real estate agent, you’ve probably heard this:
“87% of agents fail within their first five years.”
It’s the stat every coach, trainer, and agent loves to throw around.
But here’s the thing: no one can find where it actually came from. It was likely published once, years ago. But now it’s more of an industry legend than verified fact.
That doesn’t mean new agents aren’t struggling. They are.
And the National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Member Profile paints a clear picture of just how steep the climb can be.
The Numbers from NAR’s 2025 Member Profile
This year’s report doesn’t measure failure rates. It only surveys active members, so it won’t tell us exactly how many left the industry. What it does reveal is how steep the climb is in those first few years.
Here’s what the data says:
1. New agents make up a small percentage of the industry
Of those who took the survey, the typical NAR member has 12 years of experience in the industry. Just 28% have 5 years or less of experience:
- 1 year or less: 10%
- 2 years: 5%
- 3 years: 5%
- 4 years: 4%
- 5 years: 4%
2. Income starts painfully low
Agents with 2 years or less experience earned a median income of $8,100 in 2024. Compare that with the median income of $78,900 for agents with 16+ years of experience.
3. Production & Sales Volume is minimal in the early years
New agents closed a median of 3 transactions in 2024. Compare that to 11 transactions for agents with 6–15 years of experience or 10 for those with 16+ years of experience.
Sales volume tells a similar story, with new agents closing deals for $500,000 compared to $3.2 million for mid-career agents.
4. Relationships take time to build
New agents received 0% of business from repeat clients and 0% from referrals in 2024. Agents with 16+ years got a median of 41% from repeat business and 28% from referrals.
These numbers confirm what most seasoned agents already know: the early years are tough. That’s why the 87% failure rate is so widely accepted, even if it’s not fully verified.
So what does this mean for agents who just entered the industry?
If you’re not getting the right guidance, it’s easy to burn out or bail before you ever get traction.
Why Some Agents Never Make It
Byron Lazine recently shared an observation on social media that hits the nail on the head:
Too many new agents think the answer is switching brokerages, getting a slightly better commission split, or finding a quick hack to bring in leads.
But none of that matters if you don’t have the skills to consistently find, win, and serve clients.
The Training Gap That’s Costing Agents Their Careers
Tom Toole talks about this exact problem in this video, noting that most brokerages give admin training instead of training to help agents sell houses.
That’s the disconnect. New agents get handed a stack of onboarding documents, a CRM login, and details on how to fill out paperwork, but no structured, hands-on sales training.
Without training in:
- Prospecting and lead generation
- Script practice and objection handling
- Listing presentations that win business
- Negotiation skills that protect client outcomes
…it’s no wonder so many agents quietly fade out of the business before they ever see success.
The Takeaway for Agents
The “87% fail” stat might not be an exact stat, but the underlying truth is real: most agents who leave the business didn’t fail because they weren’t capable. They failed because they weren’t trained.
If you’re new, stop chasing shortcuts. Stop thinking a better split will save you.
Focus on the skills that will:
- Talk to more people
- Book more appointments
- Close more deals
That’s the difference between being part of the 87%… and proving the myth wrong.
