Ah, the 2022 housing market. What would you say if you had to explain it in under a minute?
Sterling Granger, one of the best content creators in the industry, nailed this task with a single Reel.
It’s amazing how spot on the bowling scene from The Big Lebowski depicts the past 12 months in real estate. And it covers everything—Powell, inflation, buyers, sellers and renters. Bet you’ve already rewatched it a couple of times to catch it all.
The 2022 Housing Market Explained
Because the Reel is so genius, it automatically pulls in real estate agents and other industry professionals. But @realestatecreative didn’t stop there. He went deep with his copy to speak to buyers and sellers. This mini-blog of a caption explains all the nuances consumers have dealt with this year, and he even localized it to his market in Ventura County, CA:
The US Federal Reserve increased their funding rate (not mortgage rates) by 75 basis points 4 TIMES in 2022! These hikes were rapid, painful, and likely late.
Whenever the Fed adjusts their rate, it creates a ripple effect – most notably with US Treasury Bond yields. This is where the 10 Year Treasury Bond comes into play as it is a safe bet for investors/banks to put their money (ie. lend to US gov’t with a guaranteed return). A riskier investment with higher return in about the same time is a mortgage! This risk assessment for banks trickles down to how they set mortgage rates. Charging ~1.9% above the yield. However, inflation & economic uncertainty puts the premium at about 2.9% higher than the yield now. Your own risk worthiness factors into the final rate too… you get the point though. The Fed raises funding rates, the yield goes up, the mortgage rates go up, Bob’s your uncle. That’s why we saw 6%+ mortgage rates.
With interest rates doubling from where they were at the beginning of ‘22, it has SLOWED the market. Homeowners sitting on a wealth of nested equity are going to do just that – sit on their nest egg. But, for those who must sell, they are experiencing a more balanced market. It’s still very much a Seller’s Market here in Ventura County, CA with only 2mo of housing supply available. Yet the time on market has ticked up to an average of 47 Days along with price reductions and credits being aplenty. You got to make the move happen one way or the other… or you don’t. More of this in ‘23.
Selling a home organically turns one into a homebuyer (usually). When we look at buyers, we are seeing major affordability issues. Higher mortgage rates are putting the monthly payment out of reach for many given that home prices were at all-time highs 6 months ago so a meaningful adjustment in comp values hasn’t hit yet… and it may not hit for a long time. Demand for homes is still extremely strong given the low supply. Prices are likely to plateau in 2023 if rates stay high. People need shelter so despite affordability issues, they’ll find a way.
All signs point to another Fed hike of 50+ basis points in Dec ‘22 with more in ‘23.