At NAR’s 2026 Legislative Meetings last week, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun predicted the national median home price will hit $1 million in about 25 years.
Here’s what’s behind Dr. Yun’s prediction.
When will median home prices reach $1 million?
As part of NAR’s “Ask the Economist” video series, Dr. Yun answered the question, “When do you anticipate the median home price to reach $1 million?”
In the video, he explained that the national median home price was $90,000 in 1990. San Francisco, already considered an exorbitantly priced market, sat at just $250,000.
Fast forward to today, and the national median is roughly $430,000, an increase of 378%.
Dr. Yun ran multiple scenarios to project prices forward: one at 3% home price growth, one at 5% home price growth, and one with fluctuating home price growth. In each scenario, he found the national median hitting $1 million in 25-30 years, right around the time Millennials reach retirement age.
Source: National Association of REALTORS® via Realtor.com
Renters vs. Owners: The Wealth Argument
Dr. Yun also addressed his forecast during NAR’s Legislative Meetings that took place last week. He spoke about what continued home price growth means for renters:
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels.”
There’s no disputing the first part of that quote. According to Dr. Yun, home price growth is expected to increase by 4% in 2026, approximately $16,000 in housing wealth for the typical homeowner. Multiply that kind of accumulation over 25 years, and you start to see how the median gets from $430,000 to $1 million.
And according to Dr. Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, plenty of buyers are still finding a way in.
Dr. Lautz has been traveling the country this year talking to agents. She identified several segments still actively purchasing despite ongoing affordability challenges, including:
- Boomers who bought once decades ago and never sold before
- Young owners who bought condos during COVID at low rates and want to trade up
- Renters who need space or a yard for pets
As Dr. Lautz puts it:
“I’ve been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it’s a really wonky market. You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other.”
Dr. Lautz also pushed back on a persistent misconception keeping some potential buyers on the sidelines: the idea that a down payment must be at least 20% of the sale price.
“Misinformation is out there. The typical down payment for first-time homebuyers was just 10% last year.”
How to Use This With Clients
Dr. Yun’s long-term projection is most useful in one specific conversation: with a renter who has the financial ability to buy and is genuinely weighing whether homeownership is worth pursuing.
For that person, the historical trajectory is relevant context. The national median was $90,000 in 1990. Today it’s $430,000. Dr. Yun’s projection puts it at $1 million in another 25 years.
That said, steer clear of angles that rest on the assumption that buying a home is ALWAYS better than renting. Know what the renter you’re talking to really wants before you try to convince them now is a good time to buy.
Find out what’s driving the hesitation before you bring in the data.
