Home Sale Cancellations Hit a Record High for June

Nearly 15% of pending home sales fell apart last month. That’s the highest June fallout rate on record. And it’s another clear sign that buyers are gaining leverage.

A new Redfin report shows that 14.9% of home-purchase agreements were canceled in June, up from 13.9% a year ago. That adds up to more than 57,000 failed deals in a single month.

Redfin’s data goes back to 2017, and it shows that cancellations usually dip in the spring, not climb. What we’re seeing now is a market where buyers feel confident walking away. 

And in many cases, they have good reason.

Why Deals Are Falling Apart

According to Redfin’s analysts, today’s cancellation rate is being driven by two main factors: buyer leverage and financial pressure.

Buyers are walking away because:

• They have more options. With hundreds of thousands more sellers than buyers, many markets have tilted in the buyer’s favor. Some are backing out during the inspection period when a better home hits the market or when they find a flaw they don’t want to fix.
• They’re feeling the financial strain. Even with a slight dip in mortgage payments, costs remain near all-time highs. Many buyers don’t realize what they’ve signed up for until that payment estimate becomes real.
• They’re nervous about the economy. Uncertainty around inflation, tariffs, and the potential for a recession is shaking buyer confidence, even among those who can afford to buy.

Some Sellers Are Willing to Bend

In the past, sellers could afford to say no to inspection repair requests or lowball offers. Not anymore. Today’s sellers know that once they get a buyer under contract, keeping the deal alive is priority number one.

Redfin’s report notes that sellers are often more willing to:

• Make repairs or price concessions to avoid starting over.
• Negotiate during inspections rather than reject requests outright.
• Meet buyers halfway on issues that might’ve been dealbreakers a few years ago.

In some cases, those negotiations are significant. Redfin shared one example where a buyer negotiated a $1 million price reduction due to a septic issue on a luxury property.

Where Cancellations Are Happening the Most

Redfin’s analysis of 44 major metros found the highest cancellation rates in Sun Belt markets, many of which have high levels of new construction and increasing insurance costs.

Top metros for canceled contracts in June (compared to the national average of 14.9%):

1. Jacksonville, FL – 21.4%
2. Las Vegas, NV – 19.7%
3. Atlanta, GA – 19.6%
4. San Antonio, TX – 19.2%
5. Tampa, FL – 19.2%
6. Orlando, FL – 19.0%
7. Riverside, CA – 18.5%
8. Phoenix, AZ – 18.3%
9. Fort Worth, TX – 18.1%
10. Miami, FL – 17.9%

On the flip side, the lowest cancellation rates were in:

• Nassau County, NY – 5.4%
• Montgomery County, PA – 6.8%
• Milwaukee, WI – 8.2%

Where Cancellations Are Rising Fastest

Most metros saw an increase in contract cancellations compared to last year. The biggest year-over-year jumps were in California:

• Anaheim – 15.2% (up from 12.6%)
• Los Angeles – 17.1% (up from 14.7%)

Only seven metros saw slight year-over-year declines, including:

• Fort Lauderdale, FL – 16.5% (down from 17.7%)
• Denver, CO – 16.2% (down from 17.2%)
• Orlando, FL – 19% (down from 19.9%)

Key Takeaways for Real Estate Professionals

• The fallout rate is rising. Nearly 1 in 7 pending deals failed in June, and in some markets, it’s more than 1 in 5.
• Buyers are more empowered than ever. They’re walking away for better homes, better deals, and greater peace of mind.
• Sellers need guidance. They’re more willing to negotiate, but many still don’t understand what today’s buyers expect.

How Agents Can Help Prevent Cancellations

One of the most effective ways to reduce cancellations is by managing buyer and seller expectations upfront and providing full transparency throughout the process. Deals fall apart when communication breaks down. With the right tools and a client-focused strategy, you can help keep them together.