BAM Key Details:
- Zillow’s 2026 Rent vs. Buy analysis finds the national homebuying breakeven point has fallen to 6 years, down from a peak of 8.4 years in October 2023.
- In fast-moving Midwest markets like Columbus and Indianapolis, buyers break even in as little as 4.1 years.
- In San Francisco, San Jose, and New Orleans, renting holds the financial advantage over the full 30-year horizon.
The typical home buyer breaks even relative to renting in about six years. That’s down from a peak of 8.4 years in October 2023, and it’s the most favorable buying condition we’ve seen in years.
Zillow modeled what happens over a full 30-year mortgage when a typical household buys versus rents across each of the 50 largest U.S. metros, accounting for mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, closing costs, and the return a renter earns by keeping cash out of a down payment.
Here’s what the data shows, why the gaps between markets are as wide as they are, and how to use all of it the next time a buyer asks you whether it makes sense to buy right now.
Where Buying Pays Off Fast (And Where It Might Never)
Zillow’s analysis covers all 50 of the largest U.S. metros, and the break-even range spans from four years to never.
Some markets reward buyers quickly. Others make renting the smarter financial call for decades.
On the fast end, the Midwest dominates:
- Columbus, OH: 4.1 years
- Memphis, TN: 4.2 years
- Buffalo, NY: 4.2 years
- Indianapolis, IN: 4.3 years
- Cincinnati, OH: 4.6 years
- Louisville, KY: 4.8 years
- Birmingham, AL: 5.1 years
- Detroit, MI: 5.2 years
- Las Vegas, NV: 5.2 years
- Pittsburgh, PA: 5.3 years
- Orlando, FL: 5.4 years
- Jacksonville, FL: 5.4 years
- Atlanta, GA: 5.5 years
- Tampa, FL: 5.6 years
- Phoenix, AZ: 5.8 years
- Charlotte, NC: 5.9 years
In these markets, the monthly cost of owning isn’t dramatically higher than renting, home values are growing steadily, and buyers don’t have as large a financial hole to dig out of at the start.
At the other end of the spectrum, the case for buying is hard to make:
- Portland, OR: 16.7 years
- Los Angeles, CA: 17.1 years
- Austin, TX: 18.4 years
- Seattle, WA: 19.7 years
- San Diego, CA: 23.3 years
- San Francisco, CA: renting beats buying over 30 years
- San Jose, CA: renting beats buying over 30 years
- New Orleans, LA: renting beats buying over 30 years
One finding in the report that’s easy to overlook is the down payment data.
Zillow’s analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that putting down as much as possible is always the right call. In Cincinnati, a buyer who puts down 5% actually breaks even about six months sooner than one who puts down 20%.
The reason? Cash kept out of a down payment can be invested, and in markets where home values are rising steadily and rents are relatively high, those investment returns can outpace the savings from borrowing less.
As Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow, puts it:
“For generations, Americans have been told that buying a home is the smartest financial move they’ll ever make. This analysis finds the truth is more complicated. This research shows that both renting and buying can be smart decisions, just in different cities. The good news is that for buyers who are ready, conditions today are the most favorable they’ve been in years.”
What’s Driving the Gap Between Markets
In the markets where buyers get to breakeven fast, the monthly cost of owning doesn’t outrun the monthly cost of renting by much.
The narrow gap gives buyers a more manageable starting point.
In markets where renting holds the financial advantage, that gap is wide and stays wide. High home prices, elevated insurance premiums, and weak home value appreciation can all work against the buyer. In some coastal markets, the combination of those three means the gap never closes, even over 30 years.
And let’s not forget mortgage rates. A 1% rate drop could bring buying within realistic reach for millions of additional households. A 1% rise pushes conditions back toward the difficulty of 2023 and 2024.
Here’s how Amanda Pendleton, Zillow’s home trends expert, frames the situation:
“The rent-versus-buy decision in 2026 is as much of a lifestyle decision as a financial one. Do you want a backyard garden and a menagerie of pets? Or do you want to skip yard work entirely and have the flexibility to move on a whim? These types of lifestyle questions are as important as whether or not the math works in your favor.”
That’s the part of this conversation that data alone can’t answer. The financial case for buying or renting depends on the market. The personal case depends on the buyer.
How Agents Can Use This in Buyer Conversations
The six-year national breakeven gives agents a concrete starting point for one of the most common conversations in the business right now.
A buyer who’s been sitting on the fence because buying “feels risky” is weighing uncertainty, not risk. Specific numbers (especially those pertinent to their situation) cut through that.
If a buyer is in a fast-breakeven market and planning to stay more than four or five years, the financial case for buying is stronger. If they’re in a market where the breakeven stretches past a decade, the conversation turns to how long they plan to stay, and what stability means to them.
The down payment piece is worth raising with buyers who are fixated on saving up to 20%. In some markets, putting down less and keeping cash invested produces a faster breakeven, not a slower one. Sharing that data point can reframe a buyer’s thinking without pressure.
One final thought from Orphe Divounguy:
“The ZIP code you choose may matter more than any other financial decision you make.”
If you know your local market’s breakeven number, you can walk into buyer consultations with a real answer to the question buyers are asking. And it’s not about whether buying is easier this month compared to a month (or 12) ago.
Focus on whether it makes sense for them, in their market, on their timeline.
