BAM Key Details:
- Realtor.com’s Q3 2026 Market Clock report shows about two-thirds of the top 100 metros favor buyers or are moving that way, and seller’s markets fell from 39 to 27 over the past year.
- A rate jump from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on October 8 cut buyers’ purchasing power 7.2%, equal to more than $22,000 in house price on a $2,000 monthly budget.
- Eight metros at 4 o’clock, including Atlanta and Denver, are candidates to become buyer’s markets as rates stay above 7%.
About two-thirds of the country’s top metros favor buyers or are moving in that direction, according to Realtor.com’s Q3 2026 Market Clock report.
For context, before the pandemic, about one in four sat on the buyer-friendly side.
Higher mortgage rates are a big reason for the move. Those same rates have made it harder for buyers to afford a home, reducing buyer demand and slowing home sales in many markets.
Here’s a look at where markets stand and what the numbers mean for your conversations with buyers.
Two-Thirds of Markets Now Lean Toward Buyers
Realtor.com’s Market Clock places each metro on a clock face based on local conditions.
At 12 o’clock, sellers have the most power. At 6 o’clock, buyers do. Markets moving clockwise from 12 are heading in the buyer’s direction.
The national reading sits at 4 o’clock, which the report calls a “late balanced” market trending toward buyers. It’s moved one hour in that direction since last quarter’s report.
Underneath that national number, the 99 metros in this quarter’s data spread across 10 of the 12 positions on the clock.
Here’s how they break down.
- Seller’s markets: 27
- Balanced and loosening (leaning toward buyers): 49
- Buyer’s markets: 17
- Balanced and tightening (leaning toward sellers): 6
The balanced and loosening group is the biggest. At 49 of 99 metros, it falls one short of a majority.
Two spots on the clock hold the biggest clusters of metros. There are 26 metros at 1 o’clock, which makes up all but one of the seller’s markets. Another 26 sit at 4 o’clock, more than half of the balanced and loosening group.
Each of those spots is the last hour of its group before the next one begins, and the report reads that as a sign of a market in transition.
The past year pushed things further toward buyers. Here’s what changed over the last 12 months.
- Seller’s markets fell from 39 to 27
- Buyer’s markets rose from 13 to 17
- No metro moved into seller’s territory
For a longer view, seller’s markets peaked at 98 of 100 metros in spring 2022, after two years of mortgage rates near 3%.
Their numbers have thinned as rates have hovered above 6% for the past four years.
A Map Split by Region
Each part of the country has its own identity on the clock.
The Midwest is holding out for sellers. It accounts for 16 of the 27 seller’s markets, and 16 of its 18 metros sit in seller’s territory, pretty much where they were a year ago.
Eleven metros have been seller’s markets in every month of the clock’s history.
- Midwest: Columbus, Grand Rapids, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Omaha, St. Louis and Wichita
- West: Albuquerque, San Francisco and San Jose
- Northeast: Harrisburg
The South is moving the other way. It holds 14 of the 17 buyer’s markets, up from 11 last September, and has two seller’s markets left, down from seven.
Greenville, SC and Nashville became buyer’s markets over the past year, and they’re the country’s only peak buyer’s markets at 6 o’clock.
The Northeast has a reputation for tight inventory, and it saw the biggest drop in seller’s markets of any region, from 11 to five. Five of the six balanced and tightening markets are in the Northeast.
Hartford, CT is the lone peak seller’s market at 12 o’clock.
The West had no buyer’s markets in June. By September, it had three.
- Bakersfield, CA
- Colorado Springs, CO
- Riverside, CA
Over the past year, 54 of the top 100 metros changed position on the clock, and 22 moved into a different group. Twelve left seller’s territory, with the Northeast and mid-Atlantic leading the way. Boston, Philadelphia, Providence and Washington, DC are among them.
Portland, ME made the biggest move of any metro, sliding from 1 o’clock to 4 o’clock.
The pace picked up over the last quarter as rates climbed. Forty-one metros changed position, and these four moved two full hours toward buyers.
- Austin
- Seattle
- Salt Lake City
- Portland, OR
Rates Topped 7% and Cut Into Purchasing Power
Mortgage rates are the main reason the report expects the clock to keep moving toward buyers. Higher borrowing costs slow sales. When homes sit longer, inventory piles up, and buyers get more to choose from and more room to weigh their options and negotiate.
Here’s how the 30-year fixed rate moved this year, based on Freddie Mac’s weekly average:
- 5.98% in late February, the first reading below 6% since 2022
- 6.66% in late August
- Past 7% in late September
- 7.40% on October 8
The climb from late August to early October cost buyers 7.2% of their purchasing power. For a buyer with a $2,000 monthly budget for principal and interest, the loss comes to more than $22,000 in house price.
Every home buyers are looking at right now cost them more to finance.
The Metros Closest to Tipping
Rates are above 7% heading into the slower fall and winter season. The report expects the next moves to come from the two biggest clusters at 1 o’clock and 4 o’clock.
These 4 o’clock metros are candidates to become outright buyer’s markets.
- Atlanta
- Augusta
- Charleston
- Chattanooga
- Denver
- Jacksonville
- Memphis
- San Antonio
On the other side of the clock, these 1 o’clock metros look closest to leaving seller’s territory.
- Detroit
- Richmond
- Columbus
- Indianapolis
For Columbus and Indianapolis, the move would end years-long runs as seller’s markets.
Here’s what the report expects buyers to see next quarter.
- Growing inventory
- More room to negotiate
- Homes that may take longer to sell
One expectation the report doesn’t back up is of a market that’s more affordable.
The Play for Agents
Your buyers may be getting mixed signals. The market is tilting in their favor in more places, but the money they can borrow buys less house.
Both things can be true (and currently are), but as their agent, you can help them use each one.
#1. Start with the local market.
The national reading can look nothing like what’s happening in your metro. A buyer in Tampa or Orlando, both at 7 o’clock, is shopping in a different market than a buyer in Omaha or St. Louis at 1 o’clock.
Pull up the Market Clock and MLS data for your metro before you set expectations.
#2. Rerun the numbers when rates move.
Buyers who got preapproved in late summer may be looking at homes priced above what their monthly budget covers at today’s rates.
Walk them through how a rate change affects what they can buy, using their own numbers.
#3. Negotiate on price and terms in buyer-leaning markets.
With more homes for sale and listings sitting longer, buyers in these metros have room to ask for a lower price or better terms, like seller concessions.
#4. Set expectations in seller’s markets.
Much of the Midwest has held its spot on the clock for a year. Buyers there may need to come in with strong offers.
#5. Keep buyers in tipping metros in the loop.
If you work in one of the metros the report flags as close to tipping, conditions could change within a quarter. Check in with buyers as new readings come out.
#6. Be honest about the win.
The report says buyers are gaining real advantages compared to the past several years, but the cost of financing tempers how much of a win it feels like. Buyers who hear both sides can make offers that fit their budget and their market.
The report expects higher rates to keep pushing the clock toward buyers next quarter.
Keep an eye on your metro’s reading and your buyers’ budgets, and you’ll be ready to help them negotiate a better deal on a home they can afford.
