Aging Homeowners Will Free Up 13.9 Million Homes by 2036

Over the next decade, Realtor.com projects Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation will release 13.9 million homes. These two generations released an estimated 8 million homes over the past 10 years, so the coming wave is 74% bigger.

The timing lines up with a milestone. This year, the oldest Boomers turn 80, and the youngest members of the Silent Generation are past that age.

Homeownership among older Americans holds steady into the mid-70s and starts to slip in the early 80s. The steepest drop comes in the mid-to-late 80s.

So will all those homes ease the inventory crunch? Realtor.com’s new Generational Housing Succession report says it depends on the kind of home your buyers want and where they’re shopping. 

Here’s a look at how big the turnover will get and which homes it’ll free up.

How 13.9 Million Homes Compare to the Last Decade

Boomers and the Silent Generation own and live in an estimated 36.7 million homes in 2026. Realtor.com projects that number will fall to 22.8 million by 2036.

The pace picks up every year. Realtor.com projects 1.27 million homes will be released in 2027, growing to 1.52 million in 2036, for an average of 1.39 million a year.

Here’s how the projected total builds over the decade:

• 3.9 million homes by 2029
• 8.0 million homes by 2032
• 13.9 million homes by 2036

A home counts as “released” when its owner dies, moves into a care facility, combines households with someone else or moves into a rental.

Realtor.com compares its forecast to the past decade in two ways, and each one uses a different starting point:

• 74% more, or 5.9 million additional homes, than the 8 million homes Boomers and the Silent Generation released from 2016 to 2026
• 33.7% more, or 3.5 million additional homes, than the 10.4 million homes released by all homeowners 62 and older over the same 10 years

To put the forecast in perspective, Realtor.com compared it to current inventory. The site had 5.72 million unique listings between July 2025 and June 2026. The pre-pandemic average was 6.29 million a year, which leaves inventory 9.0% short, or 0.57 million homes.

If 44.8% of the homes projected for release in 2027 hit the market, listings would get back to pre-pandemic levels, assuming nothing else changes.

Across the full decade, the average annual release equals 24.3% of current listings. If half of those homes make it to the market, the figure drops to 12.1%.

Jiayi Xu, senior economist at Realtor.com and the report’s author, spoke on the bigger question for buyers and sellers:

“The scale of this transition is unlike anything we’ve seen in the past decade, and it’s accelerating every year. The question for buyers and sellers isn’t whether more homes are coming, but which homes, where, and how many buyers will be there to meet them.”

Boomers Take Over the Handoff Around 2029

The Silent Generation is the largest source of released homes at the start of the forecast. There are fewer of these owners each year, so their numbers drop over the decade.

Boomers are headed the other way. As more of them move through their 80s, they release more homes every year, and Realtor.com expects them to take the lead around 2029.

Here are Realtor.com’s projected annual releases for both generations at four points in the forecast:

• 2027: 0.78 million from the Silent Generation and 0.49 million from Boomers
• 2029: 0.68 million from Boomers and 0.65 million from the Silent Generation
• 2032: 0.90 million from Boomers and 0.50 million from the Silent Generation
• 2036: 1.31 million from Boomers and 0.21 million from the Silent Generation

Boomer releases are projected to keep climbing through 2036, so Realtor.com expects the peak to come after its forecast window ends.

The median age of a Boomer homeowner was 68 in 2024. By 2036, it’ll be close to 80, which is below the mid-80s range where homeowners exit at the fastest rate.

In her Weekly Housing Outlook video, Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said the turnover is in its early stages and will look different from one buyer to the next.

“The impact of the Boomers aging out of housing is starting, but the peak effects are still several years away. Furthermore, the impact will be smaller or larger depending on where you are, and also depending on the size of the homes that you’re looking for, with the largest impact concentrated among the largest-size homes.”

Starter Homes Get the Smallest Share

Boomers and the Silent Generation own 1.33 million starter homes, which Realtor.com defines as homes with up to 2 bedrooms. Those homes make up 51.3% of all starter homes.

Realtor.com projects these owners will release 0.38 million starter homes over the decade, or 3% of the total. 

It works out to 38,000 homes a year, equal to 3.2% of current starter-home listings.

Starter-home inventory hasn’t recovered from the pandemic. There were 1.18 million starter homes listed on Realtor.com between July 2025 and June 2026, compared with 1.31 million before the pandemic. It’s a shortfall of 131,000 homes, or 10%.

If every released starter home went on the market, the release alone would close that shortfall by around 2030, assuming nothing else changes. If half of them do, it would take until 2034.

Realtor.com’s data points to a deeper affordability problem for starter homes:

• Sales are 24.7% below the pre-pandemic norm.
• The median listing price is up 65.2%, or close to $118,000, from pre-pandemic levels.

Realtor.com calls it a shortage of affordable starter homes. As prices have climbed, more entry-level buyers can’t afford what’s for sale, and more listings go unsold.

Xu added: 

“The handoff is a welcome relief, but it is not big enough to solve the housing shortage issue alone. Keeping homeownership within reach for the next generation, and keeping these homes a source of family wealth, will still take more supply, especially homes first-time buyers can afford, particularly in expensive markets.”

Family and Large Homes See the Biggest Supply Boost

Family homes, with 3 to 4 bedrooms, make up the bulk of the turnover. Realtor.com projects 9.9 million of them will be released over the decade, or 71.2% of the total.

Here’s how the family-home forecast compares with current inventory:

• An average of 0.99 million family homes released per year
• Equal to 24.7% of recent family-home listings
• A 12.3% increase in family-home listings if half of the released homes reach the market

Family-home listings are 9.7% below pre-pandemic levels. Realtor.com projects 0.91 million family homes will be released in 2027. If half of them hit the market, it would be enough to bring family-home listings back to pre-pandemic levels.

Large homes, with 5 or more bedrooms, see the biggest impact compared with how many are on the market now. Realtor.com projects 3.6 million large homes will be released over the decade, or 26% of the total.

Here’s how the large-home forecast compares with current inventory:

• An average of 360,000 large homes released per year
• Equal to 67.2% of recent large-home listings
• Equal to 33.6% of recent listings if half reach the market

Why Price Softening Will Be Slow and Uneven

The U.S. is short an estimated 4 million homes. The 13.9 million figure looks bigger, and Realtor.com says the two numbers can’t be compared side by side.

Released homes will trickle in over 10 years. They’ll help ease the inventory crunch caused by years of underbuilding and owners locked into low mortgage rates.

Demand is cooling at the same time. Realtor.com cites projections from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies:

• Household growth will average 859,000 a year over the next decade.
• The average since 2000 is 1.2 million a year.
• The slowdown comes from rising losses of older households and fewer new households among adults under 35.

Fewer new households means fewer buyers, which could add more downward pressure on prices.

Location plays a role too. Realtor.com cites research from the National Association of Home Builders that found the metro areas releasing homes at the highest rates are in the Rust Belt and Midwest. Expensive coastal markets, where affordability is the toughest, aren’t seeing the same pace.

Realtor.com expects prices to soften over time in family and large homes and in slower-growing markets. It doesn’t expect a nationwide price drop.

In her video, Hale said mortgage rates hit 7.28% last week, their biggest weekly increase in four years, after climbing 62 basis points over five weeks. 

She pointed to the September data as evidence of the impact.

“In September housing data released last week, the impact was evident. Pending sales were 4.1% lower than at this time last year, and more than 1 in 5 listings that are for sale saw a price cut, the highest rate since October of 2022, when mortgage rates were also rising sharply. 

“Active listings increased despite fewer new listings in September coming to market, a sign that even as buyers gain negotiating leverage, fewer are taking advantage.”

The release will build year by year, and Realtor.com expects its peak to arrive after 2036. 

How it plays out depends on the clients you’re working with and the market you’re in:

• Trade-up buyers shopping for family homes are in the segment with the most projected new supply.
• First-time buyers will see little relief from released starter homes, and their biggest help may come from trade-up buyers selling their starter homes.
• Local results will vary based on geography and the mix of home types in your area.

The Play for Agents

If your buyers have heard about the wave of homes older owners are expected to release over the next decade, Realtor.com’s forecast can help you explain what it could mean for the type of home they want and the market they’re shopping in.

Here are some scripts you can use to walk buyers through the data, from the BAMx Script Advisor. 

For a first-time buyer who’s thinking of waiting for more homes released by aging homeowners to hit the market: 

“Can I share something with you real quick? There’s a new report out that projects 13.9 million homes releasing to the market over the next decade from older homeowners. Sounds huge, right? Here’s the catch: starter homes are barely in that number. We’re talking 38,000 a year nationally. That’s 3% of current listings. The real inventory relief is in family and large homes, and that ramp doesn’t even peak until after 2029. So the wave is real, but it’s not coming for the home you’re looking for, and it’s not coming soon. Does that change how you’re thinking about timing?”

For buyers thinking home prices are about to drop across the board and inclined to wait for it: 

“Totally get it, the silver tsunami idea makes it feel like prices are about to fall everywhere. Can I share what the data actually says? The softness is going to be real, but it’s going to be uneven. Family homes and large homes, yes. Starter homes, almost nothing. And even the family home relief doesn’t hit full stride until 2029 at the earliest. The markets feeling it first are the Rust Belt and Midwest, not necessarily here. So the question isn’t whether a wave is coming. It’s whether the wave is coming for your home type, in your price range, in this market. Want me to walk you through what that actually looks like for what you’re searching for?”

For buyers who already own a starter home and are thinking of trading up: 

“Here’s something worth knowing if you’re thinking about moving up. The data shows nearly a million family homes a year are projected to release to the market starting in 2027, and that number keeps climbing. That’s the segment where you actually have more options and potentially more negotiating room coming. The play for someone in your position isn’t to wait on buying; it’s to be positioned to move when that inventory shows up. If we get your current home dialed in now, you’re not scrambling when the right one hits. What does your timeline look like?”

The Script Advisor is built on the live Role Play Masterminds in BAMx with Byron Lazine, Lisa Chinatti, and Tom Toole, and is updated every week. Start a free trial to get full access.